Estimating The Downside

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons in the detailed tables consider all inflation periods since 1957.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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Based on 1957-to-date valuation metrics, the S&P 500 potential downside to median levels is -25%. Secular bear markets, however, fall well below median levels; based on a decline to the 25th percentile of 1957-to-date distributions, the S&P 500 would have to fall 36% to 1,591 (not a prediction).

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average remained the same as last month’s reading (-21%).

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The S&P 500 gained 1.98% in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –20% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.70% in November. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –19% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.02% in September. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average narrowed by about 1% from last month’s –21% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.1% in August. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average narrowed by about 1% from last month’s –22% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.7% in July. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average widened by about 3% from last month’s –19% reading.

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Back to the medians (1957 to date): S&P 500 19% downside.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.3% (price only) in April.

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The S&P 500 gained 6.6% (price only) in March.

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