Equity Strategies Group-Level Analysis Of The Equity Markets

We view this new holding in “North American Golds” as a tactical play, more or less of a defensive move in a stock market that appears increasingly vulnerable. But it could end up being much more than that if real trouble or turmoil lies ahead.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by August performance. All screen based Quantitative Themes are included, both active and experimental.

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July was a very big month for the popular averages, with the DJIA up 9.0% and the S&P 500 up 8.8%. The big action was in big cap issues, with high quality growth issues featured (especially drugs).

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by June performance.

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The consensus way to play the “Graying of America” has been via health care related stocks. But the “Graying of America” is not just a play on health care for the aged.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by May performance.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by April performance.

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In early 1988, we established a major position in the Environmental stocks. If anything, this conceptual theme seems a stronger idea now than ever. Even though the Ecology Index tracked below is up dramatically in the last 10 years, we believe it is not too late to get into the Ecology stocks.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by March performance.

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A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by February performance.

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For the month of January, the S&P 500 gained 7.1% and the DJIA was up 8%. The Russell 2000, a good measure of secondary stocks, gained a lagging 4.4%. Not much beat the DJIA in January.

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By traditional measures, the New Zealand stock market is the most undervalued market in the developed world. As of this issue we are incorporating a 6% package of New Zealand stocks into our asset allocation models, both the conventional and the unconventional.

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The table on the following page is a performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by 1988 performance.

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In September and October, we viewed the improved market action of the “Airlines” as possibly only a knee jerk response to lower oil prices. But in November, oil prices strengthened and so did the airlines. Clearly, more was going on than just lower oil prices.

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For the month of November, the S&P 500 lost 1.9%, with the DJIA down 1.6%. The Russell 2000 (a good measure of secondary issues) was down 3.6%. Blue chip growth groups and Utilities tended to dominate the leaders along with Airlines.

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This year we have decided to “play the bounce” with 8% of our model’s equity assets. The market environment looks right and we have confidence in our quantitative and qualitative judgement disciplines.

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For the month of October, the S&P 500 gained 2.6%, with the Value Line Composite down 0.1% and the DJIA up 1.7%. Cyclical and blue chip growth groups tended to dominate the leaders while secondary technology oriented groups were concentrated toward the bottom of the list.

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For the month of September, the S&P 500 gained 4.0%, with the Value Line Composite up 2.9% and the DJIA up 4.0%. Consumer related, growth, and blue chip groups dominated the leaders list last month.

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About two thirds of the sectors beat the S&P 500 and DJIA in August (by not going down as much). Secondary stocks, as a class, also went down less than the big stock averages.

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Never before, in the history of this publication have we invested such a large percentage in a single stock. But never before has a virtual institution like IBM been so cheap.

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