Recession

Four possible upsets to bullish complacency.

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The basic question is, what might motivate the Teflon market to initially suffer a period of weakness?

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The equity crowd is now having some second thoughts: What is good for bonds may not be good for stocks.

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Soft Landing? Better fasten your seat belts...the odds are against it. Is the sun setting on the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency? Also, how gold is still disappointing its fans and a look at one of the ways your Social Security tax is spent.

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Client Questions...What Do You Think About Gold?...How Municipal Bonds Compare With Taxables...Don't Short The Gambling Stocks Yet

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I still hear commentators discussing the possibility of “another leg down” for the 1990 recession. In terms of past economic cycle analysis, this is impossible.

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With no strong evidence of an economic rebound, an increasing number of professionals are having second thoughts. Maybe the recession is not over. Maybe 1992 will feature a second leg down. More than anything, I believe these “second thoughts” are the root cause of the current correction.

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The recent “surprise” downward revision in quarterly real GNP growth served to drive the majority of investment professionals and economists from the “no recession” camp. Also, Junk Mail Busters and Ken Safian lives!

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Here at The Leuthold Group, we are starting to focus on how we are going to structure our equity portfolio for the next bull market.

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Iraq may have been responsible for knocking a fast 100 points off the market in early August, but the stock market had already rolled over. The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index deteriorated significantly with the July 27th calculation. This was before Hussein made his move.

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Recessions And Soft Landings....Why Stocks Have Moved Higher....New Zealand And Australia Update

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