Recession
2008 Recession Watch
What little discussion of a possible U.S. recession there had been in the first half of the year has dried up with an apparent pick up in the economy. “Inside The Stock Market” this month presents a 2008 Recession Watch, identifying some indicators which may prove useful in assessing the possibly of a coming recession.
Keep An Eye On The LEI – Leading Indicators Have Topped, But Have Yet To Roll Over
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has a proven track record of indicating when a recession may be near. Although this index has been trending sideways for quite some time, it has not yet rolled over.
Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful
Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.
Keep In Front Of The Economic Curve
Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.
Tough To Score In The First Quarter
Economy and inflation predictions on track so far in Q1, but stock market slowed by some confidence-shaking speed bumps.
A Bumpy Road To Recovery
Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.
Summer Rally In August?
We were wrong about a rally in July...What about August?...Much to your family’s dismay, you may want to bring along your cell phone and laptop to the beach this month.
What About the Recession and the Awful Earnings?
The NBER (U.S. “recession judge”) often fails to label recessions until after they are over. Sector Earnings in 2001: Estimate operating earnings for the cap weighted measures will be down 15%, maybe 20%. Expect the economy will start to stabilize by year-end, and improve in early 2002.
The Economic Time Clock…..Recessions And The Stock Market
Recession means it is time to buy stocks. Knowing to buy stocks half way through a recession is easy. The hard part is, when the recession started, and when it might end.
View From The North Country
Navigating safely through the current, turbulent market environment requires more experience, knowledge and training.
Have Increased Equity Exposure
Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.
September: The Best Month of a Terrible Quarter
September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year. Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.
View From the North Country
Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.
Growth...Recession Resistant - The Time Is Right
A fresh Recession Resistant screen uncovered 68 stocks - big cap companies whose earnings have held up well during the past three recessions.
View From The North Country
What might change public stock market psychology? A false signal: gold stocks did not serve as a valid lead indicator for the metal in the first five months of1996. Observations from the UK: Investors still very underweighted in U.S. stocks but attitude toward U.S. market fairly positive.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.
View from the North Country
Forecasts for 1996: Recession not "Soft Landing”, Short term rate cuts, 0% inflation...or less!
Navigating the Treacherous September, October, November Period
Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...technology leadership is fragmenting — shifting this positive to neutral.
Today’s Big Stock Market Positives and Negatives
Weighing In: The big positives and the big negatives for stocks...as we see them. Four possible upsets to bullish complacency.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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