Stock Market Internals Earnings Momentum, Small/Mid/Large Caps, Growth/Value/Cyclicals, and Additional Factors
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Our Ratio of Ratios’ preferred habitat for the last five months has been a Small Cap discount of 18%-21%. We’re surprised it hasn’t broken even lower as the S&P 500 had a price return of +9.5% over that period compared to +1.2% for the Russell 2000.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Total returns since the end of March: Royal Blue Growth +24%; Small Cap Growth +3%. Small Cap Value continues to be the only style-box that is undervalued compared to its history.
Additional Factors
Tesla zoomed 44% higher in October and became the newest firm to reach $1 trillion in market cap. Tesla is now valued at 6.25x the combined weight of Ford and General Motors even though the young upstart sports just one-third of either’s revenue. TSLA and MSFT contributed one-fourth of the S&P 500’s 7% October gain.
Earnings Momentum
With the final month of Q2-21 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio reads 1.96. Divot repair should receive most of the credit for our outstanding 2021 figures as the comparisons were some of the darkest days in our economic history.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Using non-normalized trailing operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at an 18% valuation discount to Large Caps. Our Ratio of Ratios has spent the last four months in a very tight range—fluctuating between an 18-21% Small Cap discount.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
The revival of the Growth trade has been uneven over the last six months: Royal Blue Growth +16.5%; Small Cap Growth -2.0%. Small Cap Value continues to be the only style-box that is undervalued compared to its history.
Additional Factors
The streak of consecutive positive quarters for the S&P 500 would have been shattered had it not been for our current 4%-Club members. Apple, Microsoft, and Google contributed a combined +75 bps of performance in Q3, while the index’s other 500 or so deadbeat members generated -17 bps.
Earnings Momentum
With the second month of Q2-21 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio reads 2.03. This is inline with past YOY earnings-cycle highs but somewhat of a disappointment given the record “one-month” figure for July results.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Using non-normalized trailing operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a 21% valuation discount to Large Caps. The relative underperformance of Small Cap stocks continues to push our Ratio of Ratios lower: Over the last six months, the S&P 500 has outperformed the Russell 2000 by almost 16%.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Large Cap Growth continued its streak of outperformance over Value (and everything else). This Growth/Value dynamic has been much more muted in Mid and Small Caps.
Additional Factors
The S&P 500’s stunning recovery off the COVID-panic market bottom hit another milestone in mid-August—a 100% price gain from its March 23, 2020 closing low. The quickest “double” from a bear-market low in the index’s history was still six- to seven-months slower than the “doubles” experienced by the Russell 2000, S&P 400, and the Nasdaq Composite.
Earnings Momentum
With the first month of Q2-21 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio reads an incredible 4.52. Since we were building-off one of the weakest readings in this vignette’s history (0.63 from Q2-20), we knew a big number was coming but, still, this is quite a shock.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Using non-normalized trailing operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at an 18% valuation discount to Large Caps. At the end of March, we had an 8% discount for Small Caps. Since then, the Russell 2000 has done its best to tread water with a +0.5% gain, while the S&P 500 has shot +11.1% higher.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Large Cap Growth is back in gear and nearing its September 2020 relative-strength high versus Large Cap Value.
Additional Factors
The combined share classes of Google ended the month with a 4.25% weighting in the S&P 500. Google is now the seventh firm since 1990 to join the prestigious 4% Club. YTD, Google’s +54% return has added $545 billion to the index’s market cap (that’s one Tesla or three Walmart’s).
Earnings Momentum
As we roll-in the final month of Q1 earnings, our Up/Down ratio reads 1.93. This incredibly strong “three-month” figure falls into the 94th percentile of our 38-year history—and is just shy of the first two (tax-rate juiced) quarters of 2018.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Using non-normalized trailing-operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a 21% valuation discount to Large Caps. Measured back to March, our Ratio of Ratios has delved deeper into Small Cap discount territory—from 8% to today’s 21%.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Large Cap Growth came storming back in Q2 and closed its performance gap with Value and Cyclical stocks. Small Value still leads all the other style boxes: +26.7% YTD.
Additional Factors
The much-publicized rotation out of Growth and into Value and Cyclical stocks may have ended in Q2. Bond yields retreated and the specter of ruinous inflation receded. Also gaining traction: the notion that outrageous earnings and economic growth numbers we’re currently seeing are not long for this world. From bust-to-boom-to-moderation in record time?
Earnings Momentum
As we roll-in the second month of Q1-21 earnings, our Up/Down ratio reads 1.93. This is comparable to some of the best ratios of the 2016-2019 earnings cycle and, given the earnings divot of 2020, we expect to see similar figures through the rest of the calendar year.
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