Major Trend Index
MTI: Momentum Down Despite Market’s Weekly Gain
An important momentum sub-model, which considers relationships among rates-of-change for the major indexes, slipped to neutral after having been bullish since the spring of 2016. And while this model is whipsaw-prone, it’s generally on the right side of significant market breakouts or breakdowns.
MTI Remained Negative During April
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MTI: Economic Measures Improve Slightly
While we’ve emphasized several negative developments within the MTI’s Economic composite in recent months, not all of the evidence leans bearish. Outside of the oil patch, commodities have struggled to make a clear breakout, possibly reflecting the short-term bounce in the dollar.
MTI: Continued Decline In Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation Category
Earnings-related measures have remained healthy, but the more heavily-weighted components related to monetary and interest rate trends continue to migrate towards the negative side of the ledger.
MTI: Monetary And Liquidity Work Deteriorates
While we’ve always emphasized the importance of the “weight of the evidence” over the individual MTI factor categories, it’s worth highlighting some key differences between the 2018 correction (which saw a loss in the S&P 500 of 10.2% at the February 8th closing low) and the 2015-2016 S&P 500 correction of 14.2%.
MTI: Momentum Remains Surprisingly Solid
It’s mystifying that the Momentum work has not deteriorated further during the course of this correction. Despite the -9.3% S&P 500 loss through Friday’s close, the net category reading remains at a moderately bullish level.
MTI Turned Negative In March
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MTI: Second Week In Negative Zone
Based on data for the week ended March 30th, the Major Trend Index recorded a second consecutive reading in negative territory.
MTI: Major Declines In Supply/Demand & Momentum
The Supply/Demand work plummeted last week with three unrelated “smart money” measures all showing an institutional urgency to sell into the market weakness. Such behavior is atypical of this generally “countertrend” crowd, and a decisively bearish sign.
MTI: Momentum, Economic Categories Deteriorate
We’ve always emphasized the “weight of the evidence” rather than individual MTI category developments, but we have to concede we’re troubled by the steady deterioration in the two categories that propped up the MTI during the bull’s rally off the February 2016 lows: Momentum and Economic.
MTI: Momentum Rebounds
The Momentum category rebounded 49 points last week, reflecting small gains across most of the quantitative chart scores…
MTI Weakens Within Neutral Zone
The week-over-week decline was the result of big losses in Supply/Demand and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories. The Attitudinal category also lost ground.
MTI Weakens Within Neutral Zone
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MTI: Attitudinal Strengthens Further
Subjectively, we sense that investor sentiment has rebounded (too?) rapidly following the stock market’s air pocket earlier this month. Statistically, though, we’ve found that many of our sentiment measures perform better when the observations are smoothed using various moving average lengths.
MTI: Momentum & Attitudinal Improve
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MTI: Attitudinal and Supply/Demand Gains Prevent Greater Slide
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MTI Slides To Neutral In Early February
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MTI: Economic & Attitudinal Deterioration
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MTI: Interest Rates/Inflation Not Having Adverse Effect
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MTI: Stock Market In Melt-Up Mode
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