Major Trend Index
MTI Stable, But Still Negative
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MTI: Momentum And Economic Work Offset Negatives
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MTI: Internal Market Rotation Not Evidence Of Broadening Strength
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MTI: Broad Rally Lifted Momentum Inputs
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MTI: Cyclical Market Risks Remain High
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MTI Stable, But Still Negative
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MTI: Despite NYSE Daily A/D High, Breadth Is Ailing
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MTI: Same Old Song
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MTI: Attitudinal Improved But Still Net Negative
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MTI: Momentum Smacked Again
The hits to the Momentum category were broad-based; the Advance/Decline work continues to disguise a very dangerous, underlying bifurcation of the market.
MTI Stable, But Still Negative
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MTI: Momentum Takes A Hit
The Momentum category lost ground in the latest calculation, with more than three-quarters of the loss reflecting a flip in one of our “long-term” momentum sub-models from 50% bullish in the prior week, to maximum bearish at Friday’s close.
MTI: Economic Factors Lifted By Monetary Measures
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Growth in M1 and M2 money supply has picked up, offsetting the bearish readings for Adjusted Reserves and the Fed balance sheet. Momentum category also strengthened.
MTI: Momentum Improved Despite Modest Market Losses
The Momentum category improved despite last week’s modest market losses, with some of the longer-term trend work improving. Daily and weekly 52-week lows for the NASDAQ remain elevated, reflecting the increasing concentration of strength in Technology stocks.
MTI: Upside Surprises/Depressed Expectations
We think that the economic surprises, as well as the yield uptick, reflect an unwind of extremely one-sided positioning rather than an indication of a second-half economic rebound.
MTI: Attitudinal Measures Erode On Investor Enthusiasm
The Momentum category continues to grind higher, but this push has predictably stirred up investor enthusiasm (as measured this week by an identical decline in our Attitudinal composite). At the same time, longer-term measures like CEO Confidence, Small Business Optimism, and Consumer Confidence have all weakened in the latest reports, suggesting a rollover in animal spirits could be underway.
MTI Still Negative; Stay Defensive
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MTI: NOPE Index Boosts Economic Category
The bounce in the Economic category interrupted its last few months’ steady grind lower; the increase was led mostly by an upgrade to the NOPE Index (ISM New Orders Minus Price Index), which moved from high neutral to moderately bullish. The action of individual components is hardly reassuring, however.
MTI: Economic Work Continues To Erode
The Economic work continues to erode, and it would now be deeply negative if not for the conventional scoring of our leading inflation measures, in which disinflation is viewed as a good thing. But if our suspicions that this economic cycle will end in a deflationary bust are correct, the conventional interpretation will be wrong.
MTI: Consumer Confidence Worrisome “Inversion”
A less-publicized, but still worrisome “inversion” occurring beyond the Treasury market is that of Consumer Confidence, in which the Conference Board’s Present Situation Index has soared almost 70 points above the Expectations Index. This gap always becomes extreme in the late stages of an economic expansion, and today’s reading surpasses those recorded at all business cycle peaks other than February 2001.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
