Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Who's Afraid of the Fed?
The public certainly is not afraid of Mr Greenspan…..Strong public confidence now a key stock market support factor.
Playing The Bounce Update
We elected not to “Play The Bounce” this year. With the overall market soaring to new highs during December, the stage didn’t seem to be right for superior performance from the “Playing The Bounce” stocks.
Small Cap Divergence...Growth Versus Value
The divergence between Small Cap Growth and Value performance continues to widen. It has been all Growth since August 1998.
January Mutual Fund Flows
This was the best January on record in terms of net inflows, topping January 1997’s $23 billion.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 2000 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Mutual Fund Flows...1999 Year End Recap
Estimated totals for 1999 cash flows for the major fund categories and a comparison to previous years to illustrate trends.
A December To Remember
Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market momentum built.
The Big Shrink…Record Level Cash Acquisitions In 1999
In 1999, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.
1999 Performance: Big Caps Versus Small Caps
Small cap performance actually nosed out Big Cap +19.6 for Russell 2000 and +19.5% for S&P 500 (price only). Who would have believed it?
Insider Block Measures...Record Selling In 1999 By Insiders
Recent high level of aggregate selling indicating corporate insiders see a rough road ahead for the stock market.
Tracking Shifts In Market Capitalization Leadership
If small caps can move back above the October 1999 level in the coming months, this would certainly be encouraging for small cap fans and may even signal a change in the trend to confirm that leadership is indeed moving to the small cap arena.
Volatility Update…Year End Summary
While the 1930s were more severely volatile for the S&P, 1999 ranks second only to the 1974 record (45.1%) in the post WWII era.
Playing The Bounce Update
Small cap bounce stocks were winners, November—December performance +25.6%.
15 Year S&P 500 Performance In Perspective
Once again, the stock market has soared to another year of strong performance. Returns of 20%-30% are becoming the norm.
1999 Dreams and Nightmares… A Look At What Might Have Been
One would not expect to generate better than average returns by chasing last year’s big winners. But this simplistic approach did produce better than average results in 1999, as it usually has over the last eleven years.
The Big Shrink…Equity Evaporation Continues
Through November, the $199 billion of cash acquisitions have outpaced the record $144 billion YTD offerings, producing a net equity shrink of $55 billion.
View From The North Country
“Restrictive Guidelines And Pressure To Outperform”, an excellent article by Walter Cabot appearing in the July/August 1998 Financial Analysts Journal.
Insider Block Measures
Aggregate selling slightly below historical extremes.
November No Turkey For Tech
Leuthold broad tech sector up 17% in November! But, only three of our other nine broad sectors managed decent gains for the month. Watch January, Fed could tighten in a hurry and raise rates.
Volatility Update…November Less Volatile
With just one more month of trading until the new millennium, stock market volatility stands at its highest level since 1987.
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