Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Inflation is on the rise…normal business cycle inflation, not the rebirth of new secular inflation. Also, the stampede of the lambs…the powerbase for the stock market has moved from Wall Street to Main Street.

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September-October, two months to be wary of.

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With a lack of leadership and little direction in this market during July, the percent of volatile trading days was well below the YTD figure.

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The trauma of losing Big. Large Investment losses can have a dramatic psychological impact on some individuals. Defined contributions plans…A stock market time bomb?

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The latest reading is now below historical selling extremes.

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What happened to the markets in July?..…No obvious major factor for decline. The daily stock market chart of July 1999 is close to a carbon copy of July 1998. Will history repeat itself in August? Let’s hope not.

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Since 1990, the number of listed stocks on the NYSE has increased by almost 90%. This surge in the number of listings can have a significant impact on a great many tools of the technician’s trade.

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Advise clients mandated to be fully invested to move assets away from Large Cap institutional favorites and into Mid/Small cap names.

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U. S. focus equity fund inflows are estimated at $12 billion in July, down some from June’s $14.4 billion, and also down from last July’s $15.5 billion.

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Through July, there has been $146 billion of cash acquisitions. This is an all-time record, over 35% more than the previous annual record of $108 billion in 1998.

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Cash acquisitions are shrinking U.S. equity base at a faster pace than ever before…$135 billion in the first half of 1999, a record so far, with no signs of a slowdown.

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The latest reading has broken back above this extreme net selling line.

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Volatility in 1999 remains high after eight of 22 trading days in June (36%) ended with up or down moves of 1% or greater in the S&P 500.

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Despite proclamation of a “neutral” bias toward future interest rate shifts, expect the Fed to raise short rates at least 25 basis points more.

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Just as many plan sponsors throw in the towel, active managers pull a great quarter out of their collective hat. What's in store for the second half of 1999?

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Early on, it appeared that June was destined to be one of the less memorable months in terms of U.S. equity fund inflows. But big net inflows came in during the final five days of the month, making June much more memorable to fund flow watchers.

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The S&P 500 eased 2.5% in May, while measures of smaller cap stocks edged up 1% to 2%. Major Trend Index has shifted to negative status. Dow Jones 40,000?

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Market volatility was the likely culprit for equity fund disenchantment in May, as net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds for the month were less than half of April’s record breaking $26.1 billion. Main Street Confidence: The critical market factor…..what are some potential confidence destroyers?

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Volatility is on the rise again.

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1999 YTD cash acquisition factor nearly $100 billion, far exceeding YTD totals for the last four years.

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