Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Case For A Bear Market Bottom
I now think the stock market will record its secular bear market lows between now and Thanksgiving. It’s time right now to start an equity accumulation program.
When The Bombs Fly Is It Time To Buy?
A look at previous military conflicts and stock market reaction.
September Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $17 billion is estimated for September.
Insider Block Measures....Less Selling By Insiders In August/September
The most recent sell signal (registered June 26th) proved to be very timely in retrospect, with the S&P 500 falling a big 14% in the four weeks that followed.
Eerie Parallels To 1962’s Stock Market
Markets appear remarkably similar on several levels: Both markets struggling to recover in wake of recession economy. Cuban Missile Crisis left Americans wondering if war was imminent, as Iraq debate continues to heat up today.
Corporate And Consumer Too Leveraged?
Increased reliance on debt to finance growth can cause problems down the road.
Short Interest...First NASDAQ Buy Signal In A Year
NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio posts first buy signal in a year as volume declines in August.
View From The North Country
The great opportunity in potential Telecom Survivors. This new “quantitative screen” turned “Attractive” in GS model and was purchased in Unconventional portfolio only.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Soars In August
YTD S&P 500's volatility is the highest level recorded since 1938, and ranks as the sixth highest reading dating back to 1900.
This Was No Summer Of Love
In August, the bloodletting finally slowed: Majority of indices actually managed to eke out small gains.
Putting Today's Bear Market In Historical Context
Past experience seems to indicate that the stock market bottom is likely close at hand.
August Mutual Fund Flows
August Marks Third Consecutive Month of Net Redemptions with estimate at $5 billion. Chasing performance has historically left Main Street investors buying the peaks and selling the troughs.
Short Interest...Record High Shorts, But Both Ratios Decline With Market Volume Jump
In July, average daily volume surged significantly enough to decrease the short interest ratio, despite record levels of short selling.
July…..A Month When Almost Nothing Worked
Short sellers posted the only solid performance numbers this month. August lows may approach July’s, but a rebound may be around the corner. …..Make sure to take the cell phone to the beach, as the market has a habit of interrupting the beach holiday.
Why We Conclude Equities Are No Longer Overvalued
Explanation of how we use historical valuations to compare to today.
Are There Any "Good" Numbers These Days?
Revisions continue: How many revisions are possible?
The Market Impact Of Today's Net Redemptions
The important role of cash levels in today’s mutual funds.
July Mutual Fund Flows
Estimated U.S. equity net outflow for July is an all time record in dollar terms, but less than Oct. 1987 as percentage of assets.
Volatility Update…..A Wild Ride In July
S&P 500 High Volatility reading of 73% for the month is in line above the all time annual highs recorded in 1931-1933.
Insider Block Measures....The Late June Sell Signal Was Again Timely
The most recent sell signal (registered June 26th) proved to be very timely in retrospect.
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