Inflation Watch A mid-month focus on inflation via Traditional Indexes, Commodity Prices, and Labor Costs

Inflation increased and beat expectations. Capacity utilization increased more than expected too, a sign that the slack is being worked off. A much more persistent trend in wage inflation is necessary for a sustained inflationary environment and we are still not there yet. Inflation will be a non-factor in the 1st half of 2014.  Inflation on the producers’ level is still well contained in a narrow range.

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Inflation is still modest and in line with expectations. Hourly earnings rose, but wage inflation probably has to go much higher to make its impact felt.  The U.S. has been importing disinflation from the rest of the world and the import prices reflect that. Inflation will be a non-factor in the 1st half of 2014. Inflation on the producers’ level is modest too despite the recent surge in Crude Materials PPI.

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Inflation is modest and broadly in line with expectations. Labor costs have stabilized, but the global disinflationary trend has not changed. We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor in the first half of 2014, but it might increase moderately in the second half. Inflation on the producers’ level is weak, too and the PPI inflation pipeline doesn’t seem to pose any immediate inflationary threat either.

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Inflation measures are broadly in line with expectations, and overall inflation pressure is anemic.  We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor in the first half of 2014, and it might increase moderately in the second half.  Inflation on the producers’ level is weak, too and the PPI inflation pipeline doesn’t seem to pose any immediate inflationary threat either.

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Inflation measures are going lower still, and the lack of inflation is one of the biggest hurdles for the Fed to start tapering. We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months, but it will increase moderately in the following six months. We expect weakening inflation on the producers’ level too. Disinflation is consistent across various measures.

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We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months.

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Inflation measures are tilting lower. The Fed does not see the low inflation reading reverting to a more normal level any time soon. We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months. Inflation on the producers’ level weakened too. We don’t anticipate a big rise in the near term.

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Inflation measures are anemic and mostly lower than expectations. We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months. Inflation on the producers’ level to be modest too. We don’t see strong evidence for a big rise in the near term.

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Twelve month rates of change will not rise much from current levels through the rest of 2011.

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CPI inflation measured on a twelve month basis has probably peaked. Looking ahead, inflation should cool off in the first half of 2009 (+3%). Here’s why....

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