Equity Strategies Group-Level Analysis Of The Equity Markets

Physical metals experienced a deep sell-off on Wednesday Oct. 13th.  It was one of the largest single day drops ever in the base metals markets, prompting London metals traders to dub the day “Black Wednesday.”

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Metals were a great place to be in the month of September, especially the latter part of the month.

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Added a new holding in Steel stocks to the Select Industries portfolio in September.

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Looking for Q4 tactical trading opportunities in Tech.

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The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past four months provides evidence that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.

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Based on oil futures prices, 2005 year-end  consensus  earnings forecasts for the Integrated Oil & Gas group appear too low! These too-low forecasts imply further upside for oil shares, and, at the very least, limited downside relative to the rest of the market.

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The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past three months leads us to believe that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.

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The near term is becoming more uncertain for Health Care stocks, as HC groups have experienced an erosion in GS Score strength.

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Health Care was our top-ranked sector from March 2003 to February 2004. Since that time, the sector’s composite score has steadily fallen. 

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The Industrial Metals group, our second largest Select Industries portfolio group holding, continued to rally in June.

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We view Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive and sports high growth rates thanks to the large (and growing) demand from elderly Americans.

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Industrial Metals group had nice rally after big decline in April. Early May increase in this portfolio group holding was very timely.

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We see Health Care as a key theme in 2004. The sector is defensive, but sports high growth rates– hitting an investment “sweet spot”, which should allow for strong relative performance in any market environment.

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Making first Financial sector purchase since 2001, buying Life & Health Insurance. On a  selected basis, there are pockets of attractive Financial groups, but we still advise being underweight this sector.

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Small and Mid Caps stumbled hard in a brutal month of trading and the major indices didn’t do much better. In March, we noted the lack of strong sector trends among the best and worst performing groups. This definitely reversed in April.

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There was a brief pause last month in our Health Care scores, and we were proceeding with caution. This month, our GS Score work regained some of that lost momentum.

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REITs and Financials still unattractive despite retreating in April. Financial sector weight in S&P 500 still too high given the interest rate climate.

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Over the last few years, we have been employing a beta adjusted relative strength calculation for high beta groups, along with the traditional relative strength. There are often more revealing signals given by the beta adjusted relative strength, especially in recent years.

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This month, we thought it may be interesting to revisit the Nanotechnology group, which has continued to attract a high level of interest from investors and speculators alike.

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Small and Mid Caps continued to outperform in March, with the S&P Small and Mid Cap both producing positive returns.

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