U.S. Dollar

Here again are some of the client queries we have had over the last month.

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After years of historical research and endless plotting of productivity trends, our constant vigilance and ceaseless monitoring of vital economic and industrial currents has revealed an amazing correlation. Herein Mr. Leuthold offers his sage wisdom and several solutions to domestic sagging productivity.

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For a number of months this publication has been discussing the possibility of a crisis in dollar confidence on an international basis. It appears the risks of a waterfall panic dollar decline are again increasing. Widespread currency speculation combined with growing foreign holdings of dollars and Treasury securities are increasing dollar vulnerability.

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The budget compromise was hardly satisfactory, but still far better than nothing. While the world currency markets are still fragile, from a psychological standpoint the dollar seems significantly less vulnerable today than last month or last week. We can sleep a little more soundly for a while.

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South African Divestiture: The campaign against investing in companies doing business with South Africa is rapidly building momentum…TV Tulips: Recent prices paid for commercial TV properties may be tulip bulb prices… Will It Take a Crisis?: I am just about convinced that only a crisis can bring meaningful fiscal reform.

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The Value of “Independence”: There are many changes going on in the third-party research business, changes that potentially may have a major impact on independent research firms such as The Leuthold Group…..Don’t Blame It All on the Dollar: The overpriced dollar is hardly the cause of all this country’s balance of payment woes.

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How do you make a stock market play on the declining dollar? This is not as simple as it may first appear. Three approaches are discussed, concluding the best approach might be buying selected major U.S. exporters.

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Drug stocks a play on the weak dollar?...perhaps not as good a play as most think. Herein we compare the market performance of drug stocks with the dollar from 1975 to date.

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How High the Moon? How much longer can the strength in the dollar continue?.....Change in Outlook For “Value Stocks? Not really. Several months ago, this publication expressed concern over the growing popularity of “value” investing, reducing portfolio emphasis. Then in this issue we added three new “value” stocks to the portfolio. What’s going on?

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If you believe drug stocks are really a play on future weakness in the dollar, you better read this study. We like the drugs, but not for this reason. Drug stocks at one time were sensitive to dollar fluctuations but over the last four years this has not been the case.

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