U.S. Dollar

After a brief dip, project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +3.8% by year end.

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A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.

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We continue to be more optimistic about the dollar than most, and believe the post election U.S. dollar weakness was overdone.

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A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.

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Further U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative (higher import prices), but we are more optimistic about the dollar than most.

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In Steve Leuthold’s 2005 ‘Outlook’, he called for a strengthening of the Dollar vs. the Euro in 2005, with the Dollar/Euro exchange rate hitting 1.16 before year end. So far, the dollar has made good progress towards achieving that target.

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For now the economic expansion remains healthy, but could fade some in the second half of the year.

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We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.

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CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.

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Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.

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Higher oil prices and higher food prices pushed recent CPI and PPI higher. Next month’s readings will likely show less inflation with oil prices coming down some recently.

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Physical metals experienced a deep sell-off on Wednesday Oct. 13th.  It was one of the largest single day drops ever in the base metals markets, prompting London metals traders to dub the day “Black Wednesday.”

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Steve Leuthold answers client questions in this month’s “View From The North Country”, including his thoughts on the slowing earnings growth, and his definition of secular bear markets. His dollar outlook is also updated.

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Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

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Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.

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In last month’s “View From The North Country” Steve Leuthold outlined his case for a strong dollar. This issue, we just wanted to show the updated charts, and comment that the rally appears to have begun.

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Still expect to see market correction develop in coming weeks. Based on past market dynamics, a correction in excess of 5% is overdue, considering it has been almost 12 months of uninterrupted market upside.

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This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!

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Gauging how much impact the dollar’s decline has had on the rising gold price.

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What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.

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