U.S. Dollar
Navigating The First Rate Hike
Our current view is the lift-off will be December or later. Assuming inflation will pick up and the Fed hikes the rate by the end of 2015, stocks will perform relatively well, with international stocks a better bet than U.S. stocks.
A Few Thoughts (And A Lot Of Charts) On The Oil Collapse
Has the recent collapse in crude oil prices presented us with a good opportunity for an outright commodity investment? No. Energy stocks aren’t on our radar screen either.
Capex, Capacity And The Dollar
We’ve been highlighting the overinvestment (or malinvestment) risks in commodity-oriented equity sectors for the past three years, but we certainly did not foresee those risks exploding the way they have in the oil market over the last seven months.
Can The Dollar Save Small Caps?
The dollar’s moonshot in recent months has resuscitated a stock market leadership argument we haven’t heard for a long time.
Inflation & The Dollar
Are U.S. markets for labor and capital actually getting tight?
Debt Ceiling—Weakness Before But Strength After Resolution
A look at prior debt ceiling debates and patterns around resolution dates gives no surprises: markets are weaker in the two weeks before but stronger in the month after a resolution is reached.
The Dollar: Upside Limited In The Near Term
A closer look at the dollar’s two main counterparts, the euro and the yen, reveals a regime shift in both cases, but for different reasons.
Implications Of The End Of Negative Real Yield
The 10-year real yield turned positive at the end of 2012 and has stayed there. We expect higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and lower gold prices in the next twelve months.
Bulls, Bears & The Buck
Our latest testing indicates that relative dollar stability provides the best backdrop for stocks.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
An orderly decline of the dollar is not necessarily a big concern. On the other hand, a sudden collapse of the dollar, in conjunction with spiking U.S. interest rates, would be a terrible thing. So far this has not been the case.
Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010
We are maintaining our 2010 CPI estimate of +1.2%. (Core CPI +0.9%.)
Year End Twelve Month CPI Deflation Reading Unlikely
Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.
Portraits Of Declining Inflation
Jim Floyd and Steve Leuthold believe that U.S. consumer price inflation has peaked and is headed for the +3% level by mid-2009. With current headline inflation running at +5.4%, that implies there is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline.
What A Difference The Currency Makes
A look at gold priced in dollars versus euros.
2008: Less Than Great
Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.
VLT Momentum On U.S. Currency...Applications (And Implications) For The Weak Dollar
Quite simply, VLT (which stands for Very Long Term) is a momentum oscillator which works best as a buy signal. Some market technicians have also suggested that VLT Momentum back-tests well as a currency indicator.
Long Term Bullish Case: Dollar Versus The Euro
Thanks to weak dollar, foreigners may be buying up Florida vacation homes. The U.S. is now on sale! Making the long term bullish case for a dollar rally against the euro.
View From The North Country
2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.
Inflation Is A Potential Threat
Inflation prospects are especially unclear. While many inflation gauges seem to be slowing, the threat of an inflation flare-up remains.
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