Stock Market

In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.

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With no strong evidence of an economic rebound, an increasing number of professionals are having second thoughts. Maybe the recession is not over. Maybe 1992 will feature a second leg down. More than anything, I believe these “second thoughts” are the root cause of the current correction.

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In examining various consumer and producer price measures going back for as long as 1000 years, it was found that prices have risen about 60% of the time and fallen about 40% of the time in the Western world.

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In recent months, two studies have been released on the subject of program trading, particularly index arbitrage. One concludes that index arbitrage activities do no real damage. The other tells it like it really is.

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So far in 1990, the two markets have moved very much in tandem, at least in terms of direction. Has the bond market been keying on the stock market or has the stock market been keying on the bond market?

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In this business, it is often best to conveniently forget what was said in the past. But unfortunately, when the opinions are written down and published, this does not always work. At any rate, this publication has a sometimes embarrassing commitment to full disclosure. So again, we will include our old (1986) crystal ball gazing right along with this year’s predictions.

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1985 has started out with a thud.

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