Stock Market

This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!

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I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.

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We think deflation fears are overblown, but, it isn’t necessarily bad for stock performance.

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It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.

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A look at market performance over five different rising interest rate periods. Results are somewhat surprising.

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Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

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Recession means it is time to buy stocks. Knowing to buy stocks half way through a recession is easy. The hard part is, when the recession started, and when it might end.

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Navigating safely through the current, turbulent market environment requires more experience, knowledge and training.

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Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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Workers’ stock market purchasing power at all time low. Also, a book out of the past, has an eerie ring to it.

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Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.

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Last 15 years have been the best 15 year stock performance period ever recorded. Many of today's investors expect this to be the norm. Next 3, 5, 10, or 15 year time periods cannot be expected to rival current returns.

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In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.

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Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.

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Should we just own stocks and forget about asset allocation? After all stocks have been the best performing asset class over the last 70 years.

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Economic growth and stock market performance don’t go hand in hand - the stock market looks ahead. Don’t be surprised by more wage irrflation. The AdvantHedge short selling program is updated and explained because readers have expressed a growing interest (maybe it’s the market).

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NY pros expect a trading range market over the next three months (no surprise). On a one year horizon, 53% of those polled were bullish to some degree (this was a surprise).

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The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.

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Does historical data suggest that a big performance decade is followed by a poor relative performance decade? Or, does a big performance decade beget an extended period of above average performance?

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