Sentiment
Ringing In The New Year On A Wide Range Of Topics
Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?
New Highs, And Then What?
We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.
The Outlook For Commodity Stocks
Energy looks cheaper and appears much more washed out from a sentiment perspective. Contrarians looking for commodity exposure should favor this sector over Materials.
Sentiment And “Seasonals” Collide
Stock market sentiment is overheated, at least on a short-term basis. But does excessively optimistic market sentiment lead to worse September-October market action? Yes it does, but the observations are limited.
Major Trend Index Fading As “That Time Of Year” Looms
With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.
Where To Invest? A Graphical View of Global Equity Markets
Taking into account the variety of total return contributors, we conclude that no one regional equity market stands out as a slam dunk investment idea.
Trying To Forget May 2011 (...and May 2010)
Trying to forget the April tops of the past two years appears to be difficult for many as sentiment measures remain relatively dismal (which is a stock market positive). What insight can we gain from this?
2010: Better Than It Felt
2010 was better than it felt for the equity markets, but while 2011 may be better for the economy, it might not be as strong for the equity markets. Could the bull market be running out of milestones?
So Much For “Red October”
Now that the election is over and QE2 in the works, resist the temptation to “sell the news.” We expect to see the market rally through the end of the year. Sentiment still benign and valuations still attractive.
Major Trend More Bearish As Market Enters Historically Weakest Month
August turned out to be a very volatile month, not the “doldrums” that many investors would have wanted to see during this traditional summer vacation month. Budding optimism that had developed in investors back in April has now apparently been completely washed out by the poor August performance.
Buckle Up For The “Doldrums”
Beware summer doldrums, August has a knack of sometimes being a crazy month. Market continues to be viewed as being in a severe correction mode, rather than a full fledged bear market.
Was It “Easy Money” All Along?
The “easy money”—at least psychologically— may still be ahead for some. Money continues to move out of U.S. equity mutual funds, and there is still skepticism about the stock market.
No Time To Nit-Pick
Lots of people spinning economic and market statistics to cast doubt on the recovery and stock market rally. Doug Ramsey goes point by point to make an honest assessment about the current conditions. Things do actually look pretty good right now!
Reasons To Own More Stocks
Looking for reasons to own more stocks? Doug Ramsey has a whole bunch of them.
A Decade Lost....Why Sentiment Is Now So Bad And Opportunity Now So Good
The S&P 500 has produced an annual compound return of -0.9% per year for the last ten years (November 1998 through November 2008). This does, however, set the stage for very strong performance going forward.
Historical Sentiment Measures Not Showing Signs Of Bottom
In looking at Contrarian indicators compared to past major market lows, it seems today’s market has more room on the downside.
Sentiment: Still Plenty of Non-Believers
Our Attitudinal analysis—or investor sentiment—normally deteriorates badly leading into a major market top, but has held up surprisingly well in the face of the last several weeks’ almost relentless, daily upside action.
Bond Sentiment: Window Closing For Bulls?
Since economic fundamentals are providing little help lately, an understanding of bond sentiment has become especially helpful.
Bond Sentiment: Still A Short-Term Bullish Pillar
We see little fundamental appeal in bonds at current yield levels, but would not be surprised if yields still drifted a bit lower in the next month or two—if only because so many players are positioned for the opposite.
Bond Sentiment Remains Depressed…..Short-Term Rally Could Continue
Inflation pressures have not yet abated and we believe that bond yields could tick up later this year, as those pressures eventually flow through to the CPI.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
