Group Report
Automotive Retail: Still In The Driver’s Seat
We revisit this long-held industry group and explain our positive outlook going forward.
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: New Purchase
Amidst the Energy carnage, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception, having returned over 7% YTD. Refiners are able to perform well in a variety of oil price scenarios—and tend to thrive in a falling crude oil price environment.
Small/Micro Cap Biotechnology: Still Richly Valued
Despite the group’s big losses since May, the results show Small/Micro Cap Biotechs are still richly valued. As market volatility heats up, this group faces additional downside risk.
Info Tech Sliding
IT’s overall sector rank has been falling recently. Growth has slowed, which has prompted downward earnings revisions, while valuation ratios have remained steady or gotten pricier.
Homebuilding, More Than Just Curb Appeal?
While this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.
Asset Management & Custody Banks: New Purchase
The last time this group held an Attractive rating for an extended period of time was 2000. Based on the group’s extended underperformance, induced by repercussions of the global financial crisis, we think it may finally be poised for a turnaround.
Health Care & Consumer Sector Strength Explored
While we view the industry group selection as the most important decision, looking at the sector level rankings also helps us identify broad trends. Here we highlight the top two rated sectors, currently, which also represent a combined >40% weight in our Select Industries Portfolio.
HR & Employment Services: Intriguing Candidate
Until now, this group has been out of favor per our quantitative disciplines for the entirety of the bull market, making its newfound attractiveness particularly interesting. Even an 80% return in 2013 hasn’t brought relative performance back to levels achieved during the previous bull market.
Bought Drug Retail = Consumer + Health Care In One Dose
A new position in Drug Retail was added to the Select Industries Portfolio in April. The latest update to the Group Selection (GS) Score showed improvement in several factor categories which pushed the overall score back to Attractive.
Purchased Reinsurance: GS Score Skyrockets
Reinsurance has rated Attractive for a little over one year, but the latest round of GS Scores sent this group’s score skyrocketing, and it now ranks fourth highest among all 115 industry groups. Select Industries Portfolio overall insurance industry group exposure now 8.1%.
Small Cap Biotech Valuations: Proceed With Caution
While Large/Mid Cap Biotechnology companies are boasting rising profitability, better cash flows, and stronger drug pipelines, the Small/Micro Cap Biotech firms, in general, have little tangible to show and valuations may be above the comfort zone.
Group Selection Scores Off To A Great Start In 2015
Most of the factor trends that were in place at the end of 2014 have continued in 2015 thus far.
Can Consumer Discretionary Relative Strength Continue?
Despite this sector’s extended outperformance, we think this trend may persist in the near term as Discretionary industry groups look increasingly attractive within our group work. Keeping an eye on the Fed Funds rate is key, however.
Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
Using “Analyst Score” to measure sentiment and our Group Selection (GS) Scores, we present what appear to be the most quantitatively Attractive, yet disliked equity groups.
Global Electronic Payment Systems: An Update
Performance of this thematic group has been strong but the domestic Big Four networks are facing increasing competition overseas. However, there is still a much better growth profile compared to many other industries.
Paper Industry: Global Trade Headwind
Lower energy prices will benefit the paper industry as it is among the most energy intensive of Materials groups. Yet, global implications may produce a headwind, offsetting the benefit of lower oil costs.
Airlines Remain Attractive And Still Have Positive Fundamental Story
Even after several years of relative outperformance, Airlines currently ranks fourth highest among the 115 groups we track. Our confidence is supported by the compelling fundamental story. Management has been making disciplined decisions in the face of rising demand and falling fuel prices.
Cheap Energy—Which Industries Benefit The Most?
It’s more complicated than one would think. Besides input costs, one must consider the impact on revenues, and whether various pricing differentials come into play.
Retail Theme Compelling; Purchased Hypermarkets
Retail-related industry groups continue to strengthen in our GS Scores, and Hypermarkets & Super Centers is one of the top rated groups in our rankings. This also gives exposure to Consumer Staples, currently the highest rated among our composite sector scores.
Still Bullish On Domestic Oil Refiners
Amidst the Energy sector tumult, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception.