Group Report

Our diversified index of oil related stocks is now up 110% from its lows of last summer, although still 22% below its 1980 peak. However, the relative strength line is now approaching its 1980 to date downtrend line.

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The last of the tactical “Oil Patch Recovery” play initiated in early 1983 has been closed out. What now? We expect oil stocks to be underperformers for at least six months. $25 crude prices would not be a surprise in 1984. And on a long-term basis, we still expect oil prices to erratically decline in real dollars for the rest of the century.

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In recent years health care stocks have developed a bad case of two tier-ism. Health care service issues have been hot numbers while more traditional health care issues, primarily the big ethical drug issues languished. From now on it may be the other way around.

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Capital spending to improve manufacturing and industrial productivity may be much higher than anticipated over the next three years. Management confidence is growing, and attitudes are changing: “Yes, we can compete with our overseas rivals.” Here are the stocks and industries that should be the major beneficiaries of this projected development.

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