Group Report

Electric utilities are being activated this month as an initial 7.5% equity portfolio position.

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We highlight 19 publicly traded security and protection companies and present the investment theme "Crimestoppers". Performance of the sector is impressive and a few of the names may tweak your interest.

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Another of our many new sectors over the last two years: "Buy California?" Not yet part of the Leuthold Equity Portfolio, but looks interesting.

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REITs being added to Conventional and Unconventional Portfolios. Expect total returns here to be in excess of 10% annually. REITs are also expected to act as a defensive holding in a down market.

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"Global Infrastructure" seeks to identify companies that will take advantage of expanding capital outlays for these types of projects around the world.

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We are activating the “Life Insurance” concept in September and plan to have an initial exposure of about 6% of our Model Equity portfolio. The sector has picked up on a relative basis in 1992, aided by declining interest rates, improved cost structures, and some reduction of concerns over real estate exposure.

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We are activating “The Phones” this month and plan a 5% position for this concept within our Model Equity Portfolio. Our goal is to provide a very defensive concept with reasonable P/E ratios and relatively high dividend yields in big liquid phone companies.

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After the initial burst of enthusiasm, the turmoil and troubles of the past two years have brought expectations back down to reality or below. We view this as a second and better opportunity to initiate a “Developing Europe” investment theme.

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We did it. We took an initial 6% position in our “Clean Energy” (natural gas) sector this month, a move that has been under consideration for some time. The Leuthold Group has yet to be bagged by the natural gas bubble, so here is our chance.

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This may be a tactical war play, but it could be more. Some of these stocks may once again be recognized as growth stocks, even if we see a speedy resolution of the Mideast conflict.

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In recent months we have been increasingly impressed by the improving relative performance of consumer growth stocks. This month a four stock package of consumer growth stocks was introduced as a formal portfolio sector.

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The stocks are cheap because they are currently very unpopular. Peace has, at least momentarily, pretty much swept the world. Unfortunately I doubt this will last. Human nature has really not improved much over the ages.

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This may be just the type of stock that is appropriate for the late stages of a business expansion. We would expect these investments to hold up pretty well in a down market. In other words, this sector looks to be “defensive”.

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We view this new holding in “North American Golds” as a tactical play, more or less of a defensive move in a stock market that appears increasingly vulnerable. But it could end up being much more than that if real trouble or turmoil lies ahead.

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An increasing number of brokers and institutions are focusing on “Ecology Technology”. On a global basis, environmental problems are being recognized and increasing amounts of public money is being dedicated to addressing these problems.

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The consensus way to play the “Graying of America” has been via health care related stocks. But the “Graying of America” is not just a play on health care for the aged.

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In early 1988, we established a major position in the Environmental stocks. If anything, this conceptual theme seems a stronger idea now than ever. Even though the Ecology Index tracked below is up dramatically in the last 10 years, we believe it is not too late to get into the Ecology stocks.

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In September and October, we viewed the improved market action of the “Airlines” as possibly only a knee jerk response to lower oil prices. But in November, oil prices strengthened and so did the airlines. Clearly, more was going on than just lower oil prices.

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Never before, in the history of this publication have we invested such a large percentage in a single stock. But never before has a virtual institution like IBM been so cheap.

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 “Almost Bonds”, is viewed as a tactical theme and is basically a defensive strategy that will probably be employed for a year or less. “Graying of America”, is a secular theme that could have a productive investment life of five years or longer.

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