Energy

More bubble talk. Crude oil prices are following the same pattern as the tech bubble in the late 1990s. However, Energy stocks have not become nearly as extended as Tech stocks were in the late 1990s. Also, Energy stocks have shown far superior earnings growth compared to Tech.

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Client disputes Leuthold’s call for big oil to invest in alternative energy business. Read Steve’s in-depth rebuttal.

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Relative valuations seem to support a continuation of energy stock strength.

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A look at the GS Scores for the broad Energy sector in light of the recent decline in crude oil prices. Today, only one of the Energy related groups is rated Attractive, while 3 are Neutral and 3 Unattractive.

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Select Industries Portfolio has only miniscule exposure to Energy sector (0.6% of equity assets). This month’s “Of Special Interes”t presents the rationale for underweighting Energy stocks.

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Energy sector earnings growth has helped keep overall S&P earnings advancing at a relatively strong rate. Growth would be about 9% to 10% below reported growth if Energy stocks were excluded.

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The perils of speculation in Housing…..lessons people are now learning. Also, client questions....and Leuthold's answers.

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S&P 500 Energy weight is misleading. Adding the largest multi-national integrated oil companies to the S&P’s 10% energy weight doubles it to 20%.

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In my opinion, the U.S. stock market is entering the terminal phase of the current cyclical bull market, based on our historical studies of typical cyclical bull market duration and magnitude. To a lesser degree the same can be said for the economic expansion.

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Using Breadth Dynamics to assess strength of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks within various broad market sectors: Health Care, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy.

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After painstakingly reconstructing energy sector stock components back into the 1950s and obtaining sales and earnings data also back to the 1950s, we were able to produce a long term study of profit margins in the oil patch.

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With profit margins now at 9.85%, the Energy sector is now as good as it gets.

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With oil and gas prices continuing to make new highs, we thought it would be helpful to put some perspective on rising energy prices.

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Steve presents some his very long term worries. These include debilitating and dangerous inflation, run away government spending, and an impending crush of personal debt.

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This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.

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After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.

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Based on oil futures prices, 2005 year-end  consensus  earnings forecasts for the Integrated Oil & Gas group appear too low! These too-low forecasts imply further upside for oil shares, and, at the very least, limited downside relative to the rest of the market.

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Continue to conclude the cyclical bull market prevails but my level of conviction is down a few notches. Also, an oil message from the market and “Don’t Be Economic Girlie Men”.

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Group rated Attractive since January, but continues to demonstrate quantitative strength and has now climbed to near the top of rankings.

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Leuthold deactivation of two energy groups last month was a tactical move and does not represent a longer term bearish fundamental view toward the oil patch.

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