Energy

All ten of the S&P 500 sectors recorded a sequential increase in four-quarter trailing net profit margins. But consider where sector margins stand today relative to their 25-year medians. Eight of ten S&P 500 sectors are recording profit margins well above their long-term medians.

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While gold garnered most of the headlines last year (down 27%), commodities performed badly across the board in 2013. We expect more of the same in 2014.

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We find hidden opportunities in Equipment & Services Providers, Coal and Natural Gas. We consider these themes longer term holdings instead of short-term plays

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Both models have numerous Information Technology and Financials groups in Attractive territory. Neither model has any Unattractive Tech groups. Alternatively, neither model has any Attractive Utilities groups, while several Utilities rate Unattractive in each.

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Both models (particularly domestic) have a number of Attractive rated Information Technology groups and no Unattractive rated Tech groups. Financials’ domination of the Global Attractive range continues.

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We’ve noted before that profit margin gains since the technology boom have been primarily a Large Cap phenomenon.

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We examine Emerging Markets from both the top-down and bottom-up perspectives as we try to identify where to move and what to expect. We check in on two successful EM thematic group ideas as well.

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For more than two years we’ve discussed the supply-side risks to commodity producers stemming from capacity built during the manic “Third Act” of last decade’s Three Act Play in commodities. Commodity-oriented equities have indeed underperformed since 2011, but to date, most pundits have laid blame squarely on the demand side.

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Year-over-year EPS growth rate for companies with Q2 reports (with about 65% in) currently stands at +4.2%, while revenue growth has come in at a better than expected +2.6%.

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But Information Technology rises to the top of the Domestic model, while the trend of Financials domination in the Global model remains intact.

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Our Domestic Scores have five Financials groups rating Attractive; these same five industry groups are Attractive in our Global model. In total, seven Financials groups rank Attractive in the Global model, with insurance groups looking particularly Attractive.

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Commodity producers seem to believe that last decade’s commodity boom is set to repeat. This belief itself probably ensures that it won’t.

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Energy looks cheaper and appears much more washed out from a sentiment perspective. Contrarians looking for commodity exposure should favor this sector over Materials. 

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Health Care and Consumer Staples valuations don’t look as dangerous as widely assumed. Utilities look expensive; conversely, the big corrections in the Industrials and Materials sectors have yet to create truly compelling valuations. The best sector for contrarians is Energy.

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Why is right now a great time to buy Energy stocks?

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Japan’s problems are leading many to write about the demise of nuclear power. However, Dave Kurzman not only believes the nuclear industry will survive, but will also prosper. See this month’s “Of Special Interest” for thoughts regarding this energy source from our Clean Tech guru.

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We examine the correlation between CleanTech and Petroleum and find that, contrary to what is commonly believed, the overall correlation between oil prices and Clean Technology shares is rather weak.

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In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, David Kurzman, manager of the “Leuthold Global Clean Technology” mutual fund provides his take on whether the Gulf oil spill will present any real opportunities for alternative energy stocks.

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Bubble groups rarely return as market leaders until after experiencing a prolonged trading range pattern. Technology currently appears to have paid its dues and could develop into the next market leader.

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