Energy
Using Energy Stocks To Forecast Oil
The latest Green Book highlighted the unusual divergence between crude oil and the relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy sector. Crude prices had—until this week—been trading near 18-month highs, while the relative strength of Energy stocks had slipped back towards January 2016 lows.
What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?
One of our disappointments with the Group Selection (GS) Scores in 2016 was their failure to latch on to the rebound in Energy groups.
Energy: Waiting For The Green Light
Despite putting in lows in January, the Energy sector has been stuck at the bottom of the GS rankings, and the sector has given up more than half its relative gain over the last several weeks. Perhaps the GS Scores will highlight a better entry point in the months ahead.
Energy Sector: Too Much Risk Taking As Oil Price Bounced
Despite recent bounce among stocks in the Energy sector, the GS Scores still rate Energy groups poorly.
Time For Materials?
The Leuthold Materials sector jumped five spots to #3 in the June Group Selection (GS) rankings, its highest ranking in eight years and the first reading outside of the bottom four in almost four years.
A Turn In Leadership?
Last month we wrote that a big March gain would trigger a Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum BUY signal on the S&P 500 (Chart). The month’s 6.8% S&P 500 gain wasn’t quite enough to do the trick, but we’re intrigued that VLT did issue BUY signals for three of the market’s cyclical sectors, including Energy, Materials, and Industrials.
Bottom-Fishing In Energy: Beware Of Bankruptcy Risks
New developments have lifted sentiment toward oil and Energy names, but we caution bottom-fishers to be mindful of risks. The fundamentals in the oil patch do not yet support strong oil prices going forward.
Muddle-Through Still Has The Benefit Of The Doubt
The market’s latest infatuation with bonds was driven by grave concerns that the weakness in energy and manufacturing sectors might be spreading to the U.S. economy as a whole.
Oil Price “Crashes” In Historical Perspective
In view of the last year’s steep decline in oil prices, Energy has been a frequent headline topic.
The 30/30 Club!
The S&P 500 Energy sector’s latest plunge puts it down by almost a third in the last 14 months. It now belongs to an exclusive list of sectors which have declined 30% on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500!
Cheap Energy—Which Industries Benefit The Most?
It’s more complicated than one would think. Besides input costs, one must consider the impact on revenues, and whether various pricing differentials come into play.
A Few Thoughts (And A Lot Of Charts) On The Oil Collapse
Has the recent collapse in crude oil prices presented us with a good opportunity for an outright commodity investment? No. Energy stocks aren’t on our radar screen either.
Capex, Capacity And The Dollar
We’ve been highlighting the overinvestment (or malinvestment) risks in commodity-oriented equity sectors for the past three years, but we certainly did not foresee those risks exploding the way they have in the oil market over the last seven months.
A Look At The Impact Of Lower Energy Prices On Countries
A big question for investors is: have oil prices bottomed? For the past four days, WTI jumped 19% from its low reached on January 28th, giving some the conviction that prices are reverting back to prior high levels.
Thoughts On Energy
The recent Energy sector decline has accomplished the feat of wiping out all of the upside gains achieved during its “Third Act” played out in the 2006-2008 surge.
The Evolving State Of India’s Energy Sector Price Reform
In the August book we published an article about the Indian equity market and proposed that investing in India is now more of a macro bet. The honeymoon—during which time Indian stocks were bid up from high hopes that the new government would reinvigorate the economy—is over.
Energy Rates At 4-Yr High; Bought Integrated Oil
Strength in the Energy sector has been so compelling that our two recent Energy group allocations together now make up a 10% portfolio weight, after having no Energy exposure from June 2013—April.
Energy Sector Heating Up
We’ve been negative on commodities and most commodity-oriented equities for the last three years, believing that the magnitude of the ramp-up in commodity production capacity over the last decade remains generally underappreciated by investors.
Commodities: Not A New Bull
The year’s second biggest surprise (next to the relentless drop in bond yields) might be the YTD bounce in the major commodity indexes.
Refiners Group Looks Healthy Once Again
The only Energy group rated Attractive, its score has improved for seven consecutive months.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
