Earnings

Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.

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So far so good, as sales and earnings numbers reported have been better than expected. Eric Weigel explores newly emerging trends from a number of angles and makes some cautious inferences.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines Federal tax revenues from corporations versus individuals. Despite strong revenue and earnings growth, corporations paid fewer taxes this year; all of the government’s revenue increase came from individuals.

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Quant implications for earnings revisions. Revisions tend to follow actual earnings, not lead them. Better economy now producing upside surprises, which has good short term implications.

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Two Quant Themes With Significant Implications For 2011. We revisit studies from the past year that focused on Revenue Growth vs. Earnings Growth, as well as Momentum vs. Value.

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A look at earnings and revenue risk to see how the market reveals its preference.

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Jim Floyd examines the revenue growth of the ten broad sectors in this month’s “Of Special Interest”.

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Even after a decline in global earnings of 46%, they could experience another 15% decline before reaching the bottom of the 40 year trend channel. It doesn’t look like last quarter’s stock market bottom means that an earnings bottom is imminent.

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Have analysts blown through reality and swung too far, paving the road for upside surprises?

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Extrapolate the current state of affairs into the future at your own risk - “normalcy” is bound to return at some point.

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This month’s Of Special Interest focuses on the dismal outlook for earnings. But there is hope, as they should be approaching trough levels soon. After all, with easier comps on the horizon, things can’t get much worse, can they?

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Analyst estimates for oil stock earnings never seem to fully capture the impact that the price of oil has on their earnings.

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With or without Financials, earnings momentum has been gradually deteriorating over the past two years as sales growth slowed and margins have been pressured.

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Jim Floyd tries to makes sense of earnings in the current recessionary environment.

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Profit margins contracting. Assuming margins fall back to median historical levels, this implies a market decline of about 18%.

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Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.

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NIPA earnings (National Income and Product Accounts) were revised downward significantly. Also believe that Small Cap earnings estimates are overly optimistic.

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August was comparable to flying through a category five hurricane, a violent storm with gut wrenching updrafts and downdrafts. The relatively low volume recovery from the August lows has the characteristics of a bear market rally, not the beginning of another major move to the upside.

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2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.

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Initial results for Q1 earnings look disturbing. Analyst estimates of 2007 year end earnings for stocks have been declining across all market cap tiers, with biggest declines in the Energy sector.

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