Earnings
The Not So Merry Month of May
May was malicious for most portfolio managers. Despite just modest declines for the S&P 500 and DJIA, 80% of Leuthold sectors were down more.
Dividend Discount Models...Sensitive: Handle with Care
A March 30, 1998, WSJ piece reflects the optimism of this market, substituting earnings for dividends and ignoring any potential equity risk premiums.
Earnings Momentum Update...Signs of Slowdown
There are signs of an earnings slowdown especially within the big cap arena...small cap earnings have held up relatively better.
April: Earnings Cross Currents
Late April preliminary real GDP estimate was a strong 4.2% gain, with the lowest inflation adjustment in 34 years. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged from the prior quarter for the first time since 1954.
Earnings Confusion Questions and Answers
Jim Floyd attempts to answer which is more meaningful: reported, operating, or cash flow? Also, what best describes current earnings reporting requirements (FASB 128)?
Earnings Momentum From A Market Perspective
Jim Floyd maintains a continuing earnings momentum monitor for a universe of 3000 stocks, breatking the universe down into tiers based on market capitalization.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Earnings momentum continues to be strong. Small cap earnings are improving significantly, while big cap results remain robust.
Q3 Earnings Scorecard: Strong Across The Board
Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly again in Q3, but this was matched by an equally impressive earnings performance by big caps.
S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Trends
Our momentum studies indicate that big cap earnings and sales momentum may be fading. Small cap earnings and sales trends, on the other hand, appear to be stable and maybe even improving.
Is Move in Secondary Stocks For Real?...Yes
Small caps continued to outperform in September’s strong market. Improving small cap earnings and sales momentum. Improving sponsorship (so far) from aggressive and emerging net fund inflows.
Earnings Momentum Inside the S&P 500
Ten largest S&P 500 stocks had latest four quarter earnings rise +19%, compared with top 25 companies +15%, top 100 companies +13% and bottom 200 companies +4%.
Is the Move In Secondary Stocks For Real?
Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Signs of Acceleration
Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly in Q2. Big cap faded somewhat, with one-third of database yet to report.
Technology: Short Term We Have Egg On Our Faces…BUT
Technically, even after July’s move, the relative strength line is closer to breaking down (below 70) than it is to making a new high above the 1995 peak (above 80).
Goldilocks Economy, Blockbuster Earnings Recovery
Goldilocks economy keeps rolling along, but earnings recovery has been nothing short of spectacular.
Earnings Momentum: An Unusual Divergence
S&P heaviest weights now experiencing accelerating earnings momentum. Best broad sector earnings momentum: Energy and Healthcare...Worst: Basic Materials, Utilities, and Technology.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Momentum Remains Healthy
Big cap earnings momentum is best and seems to be reaccelerating. Small cap earnings lagging by a bigger margin.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Powerful Fourth Quarter Momentum
Earnings momentum studies indicating a re-acceleration rather than a continuation of the earnings slowdown we’ve been seeing. Earnings up/down ration at 2.20. One of the strongest ever recorded.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Third Quarter Results Good So Far
Our earnings momentum studies show some slowing year over year, but not as much as Wall Street seems to believe.
Q2 Earnings Scorecard: Better Than Expected
Earnings for the first and second quarter better than most expected, as evident by Andy Engel’s up/down earnings momentum work and Jim Floyd’s 3000 company studies.
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