Commodities

Much of the upward price movement in commodity prices, as measured in U.S. dollars, is the result of the weak dollar. A weaker dollar has an inflationary impact on U.S. prices.

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Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from December’s client meetings in Chicago.

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While this higher reading is still far from signaling a significant inflation increase, we do believe that mild upward pressures are building.

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While the higher Commodity Diffusion Index reading is still far from signaling a significant inflation increase, we do believe that mild upward pressures are building.

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Corporate Crime Wave—Not a new era, but exaggerated by  length of recent bull market….Why and how some real reform must become reality. Also, why the Federal Deficit is likely to exceed $200 billion.

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New feature focusing on Steve’s opinions that lie out of consensus view.

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Favorite stock groups now “inflation and interest rate proof”?

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Inflation is on the rise…normal business cycle inflation, not the rebirth of new secular inflation. Also, the stampede of the lambs…the powerbase for the stock market has moved from Wall Street to Main Street.

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Leuthold Group’s Commodity Diffusion Index sell signal now looks like a false alarm. The 1996 budget deficit gap is closing at a faster rate than even Clinton’s administration expected. Have Republicans misread what the majority of Americans want from their political leaders?

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Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

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Major Trend moves deeper into negative territory...Commodity Diffusion Index move above 70% does not inspire us either.

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Diffusion Index breaks above its 70% danger zone, signaling higher commodity inflation ahead?

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How Bush and the boys rescued the banks without busting the FDIC, fiscal responsibility in the 1993 Congress is examined and what the recent surge in commodity inflation means.

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The U.S. stock market environment seems to be pretty much a continuation of the 1993 frolics, big new supply and continued institutional buying as professionals invest new cash flow from individual investors who don't know that Wall Street can be a two way street.

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The bond market, helped out by some good CPI and PPI numbers, scored typical net gains of 2+ points in May. Long bond yields, corporates, treasury zeros and treasury coupon bond yields fell 20 basis points....all in all, a pretty good month.

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George Bush turned the bond market around during the last week in June, mentioning that “tax revenue increases” are needed. Long bonds rejoiced by moving up about two points in the last four trading days of June.

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With at least some preliminary signs the economy is slowing, accompanied by more comforting PPI and CPI numbers, it would appear the Fed is relaxing a bit.

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In February, stocks and bonds tracked the same course. The CRB Index came down significantly in February and was close to breaking down before a late month surge. The JOC Index remains above its January breakout level.

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This is indeed a strange environment, where higher short-term rates in effect have become a bond market positive. High short rates cool the economy and keep the dollar strong. Both of these consequences are bond market positives.

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T-bonds went into a seven trading day swoon in early July. Then for the rest of the month they backed and filled. Outside the Treasury market, damage was considerably less in July.

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