Commodities
Commodities: Still Worried About Supply
Commodity producers seem to believe that last decade’s commodity boom is set to repeat. This belief itself probably ensures that it won’t.
Are Alternative Assets Effective In Hedging Portfolios?
Alternative assets have attractive return rates since 1994. But their portfolio diversification benefits have diminished as they become more equity like, though their correlations to bonds have fallen.
The Role Of Commodities In A Multi-Asset Class Portfolio
The primary benefits are their inflation and U.S. dollar hedging capabilities.
The Outlook For Commodity Stocks
Energy looks cheaper and appears much more washed out from a sentiment perspective. Contrarians looking for commodity exposure should favor this sector over Materials.
Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong
A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.
Falling Commodity Prices Tamping Down Inflation Pressures
Through November, the CPI is now up 3.4% from year ago levels, while the PPI is up 5.7%.
Up Market In January = Up Year??
As January goes, so goes the year. 2012 looks like it could well be an up year for stocks based on the January barometer. Market cycle chart from 1958 also says 2012 will be the “time to buy.”
Near Term Measures Pointing Toward Lessening Of Inflation Pressures
Twelve month rates of change will not rise much from current levels through the rest of 2011.
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
A “Late-Cycle” Economy?
Economic growth is re-accelerating, but that growth is coming at a cost…price pressures are building significantly. Manufacturing prices are up along with commodity prices.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
Commodities are on fire, and it’s not just because of the weaker dollar. Commodity prices are signaling significant pass-through inflation pressures building.
Inflation Acceleration Likely In 2011
Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation.
Commodities vs. Style Factors: A Risk Perspective
Chun Wang uses the CRB Index as a risk proxy to test the effectiveness of a range of quantitative factors in various environments. Commodity prices have become an increasingly important measure of risk, since higher commodity prices indicate a greater risk appetite and vice versa.
Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010
It may feel like a deflationary environment, but the CPI is not likely to end 2010 with a twelve month deflationary reading.
A Dissenting View On Materials
Per our work, sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Technology provide a better way to capitalize on the global recovery now underway.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010 (+3.2%); Higher PPI Inflation (+6.0%)
Commodities… And The “Old Normal”?
A loss in leadership by commodity-oriented stocks could be the big surprise for 2010. Commodity sentiment is elevated, and the sector should feel the after-effects of a capacity building binge from late last decade. Rising inflation—if it’s the monetary debasement variety—won’t lift the sector.
Weak Dollar Could Continue To Contribute To Higher Commodity Prices
U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher, like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered. The weak U.S. dollar helped, and recent rally might not last.
Leuthold Commodity Diffusion Index Remains Negative
Like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered, U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
This transition from deflation to mild inflation will be a “numbers game” as late 2009 readings are compared against late 2008’s strong deflationary readings, driving the twelve month rate up.
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