Commodities
Commodity Diffusion Index Now Signaling Rising Inflation
Commodity Diffusion Index hit 75%, an indication of rising inflation pressures. Moves above 70% in this inflation gauge have served as a pretty good sell signal for stocks.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
By year end 2009, we expect the twelve month PPI to be back up in mildly inflationary territory.
Deflation To Reflation… Give It Some Time!
Expectations for broad leadership from inflation-beneficiary sectors of Materials and Energy tell us that investor obsession seems to have shifted too rapidly from deflation to “reflation”.
Recent CPI and PPI Readings Declined By Largest Percentages In Over 60 Years
Currently declining energy and other commodity prices are producing some significant “down” months for CPI and PPI.
Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating
The consumer is in the worst shape that we can remember. September job loss was the highest in five years.
Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating
Revised Q4 real GDP confirms what we’ve been saying for quite some time...the U.S. economy began contracting in Q4 2007.
Portraits Of Declining Inflation
Jim Floyd and Steve Leuthold believe that U.S. consumer price inflation has peaked and is headed for the +3% level by mid-2009. With current headline inflation running at +5.4%, that implies there is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline.
CPI Expected To Decelerate
CPI inflation measured on a twelve month basis has probably peaked. Looking ahead, inflation should cool off in the first half of 2009 (+3%). Here’s why....
CPI Expected To Decelerate To +5% By Year End
CPI Inflation measured on a twelve month basis may be close to a cyclical peak.
Commodity Curtain Call?
Inflation is peaking and the GS Scores did a great job signaling an exit from the Industrial Metals play. Commodities were hit hard in July.
Consumer Goods Stocks Versus Commodity Stocks: Identifying Long-Term Leadership
Are we asking the wrong question about Consumer Stocks versus Staples? This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at the relationship between all Consumer groups (both Discretionary and Staples) compared to Commodity related groups.
2008: Less Than Great
Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.
Outside The BLS, Inflation Is Alive And Well
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on the inflation pressures into today’s marketplace.
Second Half 2007: Inflation Acceleration Expected
CPI inflation accelerated again in March. As we see it, the important development is that inflation has broadened out.
Bond Investors: Forget Your Econ 101!!
We know we’re not the only ones to have noticed, but the old economic rules of thumb haven’t been working in the U.S. bond market for some time.
Inflation Still A Potential Threat
Inflation trends are a mixed bag at present.
View From The North Country
Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.
Commodity Inflation = OWN MATERIALS STOCKS; Commodity Deflation = OWN MATERIALS STOCKS!!
There remains considerable macro support for industrial commodities.
Commodity Diffusion Index
Falling dollar in recent years has helped drive commodity prices higher. See “Of Special Interest” for a discussion of our Euro Adjusted Commodity Diffusion Index. It is not as inflationary as the Traditional Commodity Diffusion Index, which is now at levels not seen since the late 1970s.
The 2004 Inflation Front
Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.
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