Breadth

Bad breadth is a global concern. It may come as a surprise that foreign breadth is actually weaker than U.S. readings.

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Deteriorating stock market breadth was one of the factors contributing to the overall decline in the Major Trend Index to Negative status. An examination of the current Advance/Decline Lines shows the fade is continuing, and is particularly prevalent in the small cap indices.

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Market breadth moved down in tandem with stock market indices, but is not showing any divergences. All advance/decline lines were making new highs just before the downturn, and bull markets do not end with advance/decline data posting new highs.

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Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.

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Market breadth improving, but still relatively weak. Narrowing breadth can, however, persist for a long time. There was a two year period of diverging breadth in 1998 to 1999, prior to the last bear market.

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The market rally in November, which carried many indexes to new highs, was not as broad-based as we like to see, but Breadth did improve some later in the month.

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Leuthold Group specialized Advance/Decline Lines indicate fading breadth among Small Caps.

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Still think Small Caps have leadership position over Large Caps, but it is getting more difficult.

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Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.

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After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.

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Based on the weekly Advance/Decline line, market breadth has improved considerably. This is evidence of a much stronger underlying stock market than the S&P 500 and other measures might indicate.

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Despite the market’s weakness in March, the breadth experienced some deterioration in the last half of the month.

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Stock selection in a recession is a different ball game! A look at some of the rules and the traps when investing during a recession. The Bullish Message Of Breadth: Demonstration of how divergences between the S&P 500 and the A/D Lines have denoted market tops and market strength.

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Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.

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Hot market in December with many tech groups up 20%+ and one-fourth of Leuthold’s groups posting double digit gains...as Y2K fears diminished, the market  momentum built.

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September-October, two months to be wary of.

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Comparing 1987 versus 1997 and 1998 Advance/Decline lines: 1987’s actually didn’t look nearly as bad as today’s.

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Octophobia…but October 1997 is not at all like October 1987. In 1997, the Advance/Decline line has continued “in gear” with the S&P 500, whereas in 1987, the A/D line peaked out five months before August 1987’s peak.

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Major Trend turned negative March 24th...Clients notified via Interim Memo. Bull market topping out or possibly already has. Market breadth measures signaling significant market deterioration.

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A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

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