Bond Yield

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve is flattening out.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve looks like it may be flattening out.

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Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.

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At this point, the bond market outlook is still viewed as negative, it was also negative last month. The upside seems minimal over the next 6-12 months.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative for bond market.

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Weight of the evidence now mildly negative on bond market.

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The late October bond market retreat spilled over into November, as nervous investors continued to be bombarded with better than expected economic reports.

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Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.

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Time for an attitude adjustment? We have seen some fat returns on long fixed income securities since rates peaked in 1981. What can we expect from bonds in the future? To help answer this question we look at three sample bonds using a 5 and 10 year risk/reward framework.

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The committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research says it is a recession.

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In the August issue, we examined the historical relationship of bond yields and common stock earnings yields, looking at it in terms of a ratio. In this issue, we make the same comparison in terms of a basis point differential.

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This is the third in a series of studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. In this issue, we examine the historical relationship of the bond yield and common stock earnings yield in terms of a ratio.

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This is the second of our studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. This issue we present the Yield Differential, the basis point difference between stock dividend yields and bond yields.

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Have we entered an age of interest rate discontinuity, where past interest rate history has no meaning? Are the current high rates merely a long-lasting hangover from the high inflation of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s? Is it a matter of there being too much of a demand for dollars and not enough supply? NO!

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This is the first of our studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. Herein we compare bond yields to common stock dividend yields in terms of a ratio.

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Several years ago, we first published a histogram presenting average annual yields for highest quality U.S. bonds, 1790 to date. However, I wanted to examine historical yield distributions with more precision, presenting average quarterly yields, as well as average annual yields.

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