Bond Yield

Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.

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Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

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Bond market was punished again in March by continued (forced?) hedge fund selling and unexpected stronger economic signals casting doubts on further Fed easing. Rising labor costs and higher energy and grain prices provided reasons for worry.

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Bond market was pummeled in February by weaker dollar, aggressive hedge fund selling, and Mr. Greenspan’s positive economic comments which cast doubts on further significant Fed easing.

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Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.

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Bond market rally continued in December. Government shutdown curtailed information flow, but economy still looks lame and inflation tame. Investors forced to focus on Washington's political farce.

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The big bond market rally continued to roll ahead in November, with yields in most bond sectors falling 20-25 basis points.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing. Other positives include strong foreign buying, and improving fiscal disciplines.

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Bond market rally continues: weaker economic news, lethargic consumer spending, and tame inflation reports increase likelihood of further Fed easing...other positives include stronger dollar, foreign buying, and declining budget deficit.

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Bond market rally rekindles, as consensus changes from “one and done” to possibility of further easing...other positives include stronger dollar and foreign buying.

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Bond market rally sputters, as consensus changes from multiple Fed rate cuts to “one and done”. Greenspan upbeat assessment of economy chokes off further bond advance.

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.

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Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.

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The equity crowd is now having some second thoughts: What is good for bonds may not be good for stocks.

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Weight of the evidence bond market Major Trend still negative this month. Weak dollar, commodity inflation warnings, combined with diminishing investor demand helped to keep our Index in negative territory.

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Bond market now ahead of itself...Economy stronger than many perceive...Fed may not be done tightening...Expect bond market correction to develop from overbought position sometime in March.

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Bond market decline may be in find stages, but stock market can stilll fall 20%- 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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