Articles by Greg Swenson Director of Equities

AdvantHedge was down 0.8% in July, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (-2.4%), but trailing the inverse Russell 2000 (+3.6%).

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both held up well during July in a strong, but primarily U.S. large-cap led market.

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Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials remain as the top-three sectors. Consumer Staples dropped for the second consecutive month, now rated 8th out of the eleven broad sectors; Health Care bumped up to 7th from 8th. Energy, Real Estate, and Utilities are the three-worst rated, which has been the case for over a year.

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AdvantHedge was down 2.3% in June, in line with the inverse S&P 500 (-2.3%) and slightly trailing the inverse Russell 2000 (-1.9%).

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both underperformed during a strong month for equities. Their underlying stock exposure lagged amid the reversal of interest rates and growth outperformance. 

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After years of underperformance, investors who pay attention to both Momentum and Value are finally being rewarded. The turnaround has been substantial, but the relative valuation of expensive Momentum vs. cheap Momentum stocks is still extremely elevated by historical standards.

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Financials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary maintained their positions as the top three sectors. Industrials improved from 7th to 4th place, ousting Info Tech down to #5. Consumer Staples dropped two spots to rank 7th out of the eleven broad sectors. Health Care kept its place at #8, while Energy, Real Estate, and Utilities maintain their one-plus-year reign as the three worst.

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AdvantHedge was up 0.6% in May, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (-0.7%) and the inverse Russell 2000 (-0.2%). Valuations once again mattered—both for sectors, overall, and for stock and industry group selection.

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both outperformed during an up month for broad equity markets. All sleeves of the portfolios (equities, fixed income, alternatives) posted positive performance.

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Financials remains at the top, and Materials strengthened to #2 (it ranked #6 as recently as March). Consumer Discretionary moved back up to 3rd place. Info Tech dropped to 4th—the first time it has ranked below the top-three since October 2019. Health Care continued its trend of deterioration and is now the eighth-lowest-rated of the eleven broad sectors. Energy, Real Estate, and Utilities are the three-worst-ranked sectors—a distinction they have now maintained for roughly a year.

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The Group Selection (GS) Scores are off to a fantastic start in 2021, and the Select Industries strategy, which takes its cues from the Attractive range, has taken full advantage.

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AdvantHedge was down 5.2% in April, in line with the inverse S&P 500 (-5.3%) but trailing the inverse Russell 2000 (-2.1%).

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios continued to perform well; the underlying equity strategies maintained solid gains. With a pause in rates, fixed income and alternatives were also positive contributors.

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While Value outperformance continued throughout the first quarter, March saw higher-quality Value names take the lead. Prior to March, it was mostly the unprofitable companies that had driven the rotation.

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Financials and Information Technology remained in the top-two spots this month, with Materials moving up from 6th to displace Consumer Discretionary as the 3rd highest rated. Health Care logged the biggest drop in the ratings, moving from 4th down to 7th. Energy, Real Estate, and Utilities maintained their status quo as the three-worst-ranked sectors—now approaching almost a full year at the bottom.

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AdvantHedge was down 2.4% in March, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (-4.4%) but trailing the inverse Russell 2000 (-1.0%).

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both benefited from strong performance of their underlying equity holdings during March and kept pace with all-equity benchmarks despite holding substantially less stock exposure. 

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Contrarian investing is difficult from both an emotional and implementation standpoint. Often the consensus is right, and industry groups are out-of-favor for a reason. As the saying goes, “Don’t be contrarian just for the sake of being a contrarian.”

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The Reddit-driven January performance of heavily-shorted stocks reversed in February, but not nearly enough to reverse all the previous gains.

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The top-rated sectors are unchanged this month, with Financials, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary rounding out the top-three spots. Health Care moved up from the 6th rank to 4th. Consumer Staples logged the biggest drop in the ratings, moving from 5th spot to 7th this month. Energy, Real Estate, and Utilities maintained their status quo as the three-worst-ranked sectors—now tallying the tenth-consecutive month at the bottom.

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