Articles by Greg Swenson Director of Equities

Valuation dispersions remain at extreme levels. Dispersions within Large Cap stocks remain above Tech Bubble levels, but are on par with Mid and Small Cap stocks on an absolute basis. Spreads within sectors also present historic stock selection opportunities.

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The selloff has served to amplify secular style-trends that were in place going into this debacle. Large Cap Growth has continued to outperform everything else, with the underperformance of Value stocks accelerating alongside market losses.

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For the third consecutive month, Health Care and Information Technology remain among the top three rated sectors. Financials dropped from second to fourth and Communication Services took its spot as #2 (up from 5th). Consumer Staples has improved to 6th from the 8th position. Utilities, Materials, and Energy continue to rank at the bottom.

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Select Industries lagged the S&P 500 during March, but held up well compared to the Russell 2000.

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both held up better than the broad market in March.

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The recent market turmoil has only served to exacerbate equity style trends that have been in place for years, with Value, Small Caps, and High Beta all underperforming relative to Growth / Momentum, Large Cap, and Low Volatility, respectively. 

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Momentum made up for a lackluster 2019 by providing protection during the volatile market correction, while Value continued to be punished. Momentum remains expensive relative to its long-term history, while Value remains cheap, but neither is outside levels seen in recent years.

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For the second consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Financials, and Information Technology. Real Estate has improved to 6th from the 8th lowest and is now more attractive than Industrials and Consumer Staples sectors. Utilities and Energy have ranked among the three-lowest rated positions for twelve consecutive months; they are joined by Materials—which has ranked among the bottom-four spots for twelve months running.

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Select Industries performed well relative to the broad market during the February selloff.

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With Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios’ net equity exposure in the range of 50% during February, they were able to mitigate the damage felt in the equity market.

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The common, and easy reason given for the recent Tesla move is a short squeeze. We don’t deny that existing shorts are getting “squeezed,” but that’s a result, not a cause, of the recent move. The more likely instigator is speculator FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).

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Leuthold Core and Leuthold Global were both down slightly during January, as negative long-equity performance overshadowed positive results from fixed income and gold.

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The top-three rated sectors are Financials, Health Care, and Information Technology, the same as last month. Real Estate moved out of the bottom three rankings after a one-month stay and Materials edged back in following its one-month respite. Utilities and Energy round out the bottom, which have placed among the lowest rated now for eleven consecutive months.

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During a decade characterized by surging equity markets and the proliferation of smart beta products, the best performing quantitative factor was Sales Stability.

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Both strategies posted positive performance in December, aided by allocations to Emerging Markets and Gold.

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During a decade characterized by surging equity markets and the proliferation of smart beta products, the best performing quantitative factor was Sales Stability, which isn’t usually associated with either of those trends.

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The top-two rated sectors are Financials and Information Technology. Health Care advanced to rank #3, while Communication Services—among the top-three positions since July—was bumped down to #5. Real Estate, which ranked highly in the top three just six months ago, deteriorated to the 9th lowest (out of eleven broad sectors). Materials edged out of the bottom three ranks after nine consecutive months, while Utilities and Energy have now been among the bottom three positions for ten months in a row.

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The top-three-rated sectors are Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services. Health Care rose from sixth of eleven to the fourth-highest-rated. This is the ninth consecutive month in which Utilities, Materials, and Energy have governed the bottom three positions. The Consumer Staples sector has been occupying the #8 spot since at least July.

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Select Industries underperformed the S&P 500 in November due to poor industry selection within Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, and Industrials.

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Going forward, high Momentum will depend on an unlikely combination of Information Technology and low Volatility, while low Momentum continues to have outsized exposure to Energy and Materials. Recent weakness only moderately tempered valuations, which could be a headwind.

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