Articles by Greg Swenson Director of Equities

The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their respective 100% equity benchmarks in January as markets continued their bounce off the Christmas Eve correction lows.

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The top-three rated sectors are Communication Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary. Scoring lowest with the latest ratings were Materials, Energy, and Industrials.

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As markets sold off in December, the Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both fared well versus their respective 100% equity benchmarks.

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2018 was frustrating for most investors as Value continued to struggle and positive Momentum performance was difficult to capture. Small Caps, Mid Caps, and ADRs also underperformed.

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The top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, with Information Technology dropping from the top-three. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings, for the second consecutive month, are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their respective 100% equity benchmarks during November as markets bounced back after falling into correction territory during October. 

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 Along with market volatility, the composition of Momentum has changed, becoming more defensive and less exposed to cyclicals and commodities.

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For the sixth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both outperformed their 100% equity benchmarks in October.

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Most factor categories reversed performance along with the market in October. During the month, Value had solid results while Growth gave up all of its 2018 gains. Profitability also had a nice bounce-back month. 

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For the fifth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. The newly launched Communication Services sector (which replaces Telecom Services) debuts with a strong ranking in fourth place. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Utilities, Materials, and Real Estate.

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their 100% equity benchmarks in September.

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Health Care remains the highest-rated sector followed by Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary. These sectors have ranked among the top three since June. At the low end of the rankings are Utilities, Telecom Services, and Materials, all of which have been among the bottom three positions for three consecutive months.

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their 100% equity benchmarks last month in a strong month for stocks.

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While Momentum continues to work overall, the gains have been skewed to the companies trading at the highest valuation multiples. Extremes, based on both price and valuation, have only been greater a handful of times during the period measured.

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Read this month's Sector Rankings.

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The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their 100% equity benchmarks last month in a strong month for stocks.

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Following a seven-month stint as the highest-rated sector overall, Consumer Discretionary relinquished the throne to Health Care.

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Value finally performed well during July, turning in its best month of 2018 on a spread basis. While the factor category is still deep in negative territory for the year, almost 85% of its underperformance is coming from the worst quintile outperforming the universe; meaning Value has mostly struggled because of expensive stocks outperforming, not cheap stocks lagging.

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The Major Trend Index continued to deteriorate in June, suggesting that the most likely path for the equity markets, from here, is lower.

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