Articles by Chun Wang Director of Multi-Asset Strategies

The latest CPI numbers matched market expectations. Lower oil and stock prices are disinflationary. China will lead the U.S. in inflation and currencies.

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Despite some near-term oversold conditions in risky assets, we continue to recommend defense and expect higher volatility to remain across all asset classes.

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We are heading into a pre-election year that boasts one of the best time-cycle patterns. Most markets, Developed and Emerging, show good patterns for 2019, even with different election cycles.

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Many were caught off guard by the relentless drop in stock prices and bond yields, but we think the real problem is that most people have underestimated the twin threats of central bank tightening and the ongoing trade war with China.

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Despite the recent signal whipsaws, we have been cautious toward all risky assets and we continue to recommend defense amid higher volatility across all asset classes.

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Despite the recent signal whipsaws, we have been cautious toward all risky assets and we continue to recommend defense amid higher volatility across all asset classes.

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We created an equity basket that can track the movement of the U.S. 10-year yield. Overall, it does a good job of capturing the major moves.

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Liquidity reduction (QT) by global central banks is already showing up in slower M1 growth in all G3 countries. Slower M1 growth has led economic slowdown by about twelve months.

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The latest CPI numbers matched market expectations. Lower oil and a strong dollar are disinflationary. Cooling trend in the housing market is worth close monitoring. Global inflation surprises provide supportive backdrop.

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A significant rise in real yields would make us turn cautious toward all spread products.

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We have been leaning toward the defensive side despite the recent signal whipsaws and we continue to recommend caution in light of the increase in volatility across all asset classes.

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The 40 bps jump in the 10-year yield, a 2-standard-deviation event, occurred within a five-week win-dow. Interestingly, historical data doesn’t suggest a continued increase in the near term.

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The latest CPI numbers missed market expectations. The problem is not with the actual CPI numbers, but merely the fact that market expectations are still a tad too high. More disconcerting is the cool trend in housing inflation.

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Attractive relative valuation outweighs concerns about heavy issuance and moderate deterioration in underwriting standards.

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Our Risk Aversion Index fell sharply last month and triggered a new “Lower Risk” signal. Caution is still strongly recommended, and we favor higher-quality credit within fixed income.

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While mid-term elections are rarely big market movers, this year’s election demands more attention as it has the potential to alter the balance of political power in Washington.

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The recent move higher in rates had broader support as other major markets also saw higher rates.

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Both interest rates and investment grade spreads are at a reasonably attractive level to provide downside cushion.

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Our Risk Aversion Index reversed higher last month and triggered a new “Higher Risk” signal. We recommend a defensive stance within fixed income.

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The increasingly greater attention given to the yield curve by equity investors has prompted us to come up with an equity basket that can track the movement of the yield curve. Overall, it does a reasonably good job of capturing the major moves.

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