Stock Market Internals Earnings Momentum, Small/Mid/Large Caps, Growth/Value/Cyclicals, and Additional Factors
Earnings Momentum
Our Up/Down ratio reads 0.66—a terrible start to Q4 reports; only five prior “one-month” readings were worse than today’s: Q2-2020 and every quarter of 2009. Despite present day economic conditions seemingly quite a bit different than in those five previous cases, roughly the same percentage of firms are failing to beat EPS of twelve months ago.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
After a scorching December for the S&P 600 (+13%), the small cap index underperformed both the Equal- and Cap-Weighted S&P 500 in January. Interest rates—not valuations—seem to be in full control of the situation, as small caps patiently wait for rates to move lower.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
At the end of 2023, market breadth finally widened. That short run came to an end in January as the momentum champ of 2023—Large Cap Growth—was back in control.
Additional Factors
The semiconductor stock is now within spitting distance of becoming the eighth firm ever to enter the prestigious 4% Club (achieving a 4% weight in the S&P 500). Over the last four years, NVDA has posted a return of +945%, pushing its index weight from 0.54% to 3.74%. The stock’s 24% gain in January contributed nearly half of the S&P 500’s +1.6% monthly return.
Earnings Ratio in Depressing Range
With the books closed on Q3-23 reporting, the ratio reads 1.16—right in the middle of the depressing range captured over the past two years. This equal-weighted all-cap vignette is still flashing a warning sign about companies’ ability to grow their bottom lines.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Our preferred earnings measure, five-year normalized EPS, has grown from $145 to $171 over the last two years. The S&P 500’s Normalized P/E multiple has dipped from 32.9x to 27.9x since the end of 2021. Those two figures are good for the 94th and 81st percentiles, respectively, in our 1995-present data set.
Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
Royal Blue Growth (+40%) led all of our style boxes in 2023. However, this mega-cap proxy still hasn’t recovered all of its losses from 2022.
Additional Factors
The story of the year was the Magnificent 7. Even with a lackluster December, the largest seven firms produced an average return of +111% in 2023. Advances in those companies added $5 trillion in market cap and were responsible for just under two-thirds of the S&P 500’s overall gain.
Everything Looks Late Cycle
Our ratio reads 1.15—a nice bounce from the alarm-ringing “one-month” figure of 0.94 at the end of October. Still, this result is very much in the range of the past seven quarters’ “two-month” readings, which have an abysmal tally of 1.10 on average.
Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
November’s rising tide lifted all boats and our Ratio of Ratios is unchanged from the end of October. Absolute trailing P/E values for both Large and Small Caps spiked higher with the market, but remain well below readings seen at similar S&P 500 market levels at the end of July.
Small Cap Discount = 27%
Using non-normalized trailing operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a 27% discount to Large Caps. November’s rising tide lifted all boats and our Ratio of Ratios was unchanged from the end of October. Absolute trailing P/E values, both for Large and Small Caps, spiked higher with the market, but are well below those seen at similar S&P 500 market levels at the end of July—another testament to this vignette’s most suitable benchmarks (Equal Weighted S&P 500 and S&P 600) lagging over that time period. Looking at full-year 2024 numbers, the Small Cap/Large Cap P/E discount is narrower at 23%.
Small Cap Discount = 27%
Using non-normalized trailing operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a 27% discount to Large Caps. November’s rising tide lifted all boats and our Ratio of Ratios was unchanged from the end of October. Absolute trailing P/E values, both for Large and Small Caps, spiked higher with the market, but are well below those seen at similar S&P 500 market levels at the end of July—another testament to this vignette’s most suitable benchmarks (Equal Weighted S&P 500 and S&P 600) lagging over that time period. Looking at full-year 2024 numbers, the Small Cap/Large Cap P/E discount is narrower at 23%.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
Large- and Mid-Cap Growth were the biggest winners (+12-14%), although all style segments benefited from the stock market upsurge. The advance by MC Value, SC Growth, and SC Value (+9% each) flipped their YTD losses to the positive side of the ledger as of November’s close.
Additional Factors
As we slice and dissect November’s performance, we find comfort in the uniformity of returns for the Cap Weighted measure, Equal Weighted average, and even our market-cap quintiles—which were all up around 9%. That is a stark change from the concentration of returns seen over the last ten months. The Cap Weighted S&P 500 ended November just 1.7% shy (via either price or dividend return) of eclipsing its 23-month-old highwater mark.
An Underwhelming Start
The number of firms beating on both the top and bottom lines has been underwhelming thus far. Those that missed EPS estimates have seen their equity drop an average of 4-5% relative to the index. That’s quite a bit higher than the usual 2-3% decline we’d expect given the history of data.
Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
The most appropriate proxies for this comparison, the Equal Weighted S&P 500 and the S&P 600, were down 4.2% and 5.8%, respectively, in October. Hence, the minimal 1% widening for the Small Cap discount makes sense.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
Three of our six style boxes are now in negative territory for 2023. The Mega Cap Growth proxy—Royal Blue Growth (+16.4% YTD)—has been the only game in town.
Additional Factors
Another month, another yawning performance gap between the Cap- and Equal-Weighted S&P 500. Since the end of January, the more democratic of the two has underperformed the top-heavy version by nearly 14%. To find a nine-month span with greater relative underperformance for the Equal Weighted Index, you’d have to go all the way back to the very top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000.
Late Cycle Lingers
With Q2-23 reporting complete, the ratio reads 1.06. Based on the final numbers recorded for the last six quarters, it looks like the longest late-cycle earnings streak in this vignette’s history (average reading of 1.08).
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
This month is the five-year anniversary of the last time Small-Cap and Large-Cap P/E ratios in our L3000 Universe were roughly equivalent. Price returns over the last five years tell most of the story about the widening Small Cap discount: S&P 500 +58%, S&P 600 +21%.
Additional Factors
Surging interest rates were the story of September, as the benchmark 10-year and 30-year yields both moved 50 basis points higher. The rate increases were felt most acutely by Utilities, as the sector ETF (XLU) fell over 13% in the twelve trading days from 9/15 to 10/2. XLRE, the Real Estate sector ETF, was squeezed as well, falling 11% during that same period.
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