Macro Monitor

We recommend going up in quality across the whole fixed income spectrum.

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We recommend going up in quality across the whole fixed income spectrum.

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Given the high likelihood of a March rate hike, we can’t help but wonder if the old adage of “three steps and a stumble” really holds.

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While we continue to view spread products favorably within fixed income, the March rate hike has yet to have its impact play out. In the near term, we will respect the “higher risk” signal and exercise caution.

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Higher quality Corporate bonds should be able to weather the rate hike quite well.

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The market seemed hesitant to push the Trump trade any farther as new policies have focused on trade renegotiation and immigration, the less positive part of the policy package.

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This new signal is mostly due to a much lower reading three months ago.

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After the big supply last month, we believe there is more room for spreads to narrow.

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There are certainly better catalysts this time that make a bear market a distinct possibility, but until a decisive break occurs (most likely when the 10-year gets above 3%), the bull market is still intact.

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In 2016, both the U.S. and the U.K. stock markets tracked their historical patterns quite well but other international equity markets and non-equity markets tracked poorly.

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While we are aware of how far markets have moved in the few short weeks since the election, we continue to maintain a Favorable view toward spread products within fixed income.

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Both the macro backdrop and price trend still point to narrower spreads ahead.

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Market reaction since the election has been right on the money. What we didn’t expect was the speed and the magnitude of the so-called “Trump Trade."

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With the Fed’s December hike priced in, we maintain a Favorable view toward spread products within fixed income.

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The reflation theme got an extra kick after the election. Companies with stronger credit profiles continued to benefit from tighter credit spreads.

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· One bright spot in last month’s lackluster market action was that inflation sensitive assets saw impressive relative returns.

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Regardless of whether the reflation theme continues, high quality spread products should continue to do well.

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The upcoming election is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on both monetary and fiscal policies and we expect election risk to overshadow the Fed policy risk for the time being.

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We maintain our favorable view towards spread products within fixed income, but given the election and the Fed hike risk, caution is warranted.

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