Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Playing The Bounce: No Carry Through In January After Strong December
A last look at a dismal year for Playing the Bounce.
Market Valuations: What Would Ben Graham Do?
With stock market “fundamentals” seemingly worse than at any time since World War II, we revisit the methods of the founding father of fundamental security analysis.
The U.S. Is Leading The Foreign Markets, But For How Long?
· The U.S. is leading the foreign markets, but for how long?
Positive Technical Trends
While there is plenty to worry about, some important technical trends still suggest that November 20, 2008 stands a good chance of being the final low of this bear market.
2008 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
Even with perfect hindsight, an investor who purchased the 20 best performing groups in 2008 would have generated a 13% loss for the year. The 20 worst performing groups had an average loss of 62.5%.
Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.
Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October
“Playing The Bounce” strategy produced impressive gains in December, but results are still negative from October introduction.
December Market Action
2008 is over. We expect 2009 to be better since worst-case scenarios now seem less likely to play out.
The January Effect: Return To The Good Old Days?
“January Effect” has lost some of its luster in recent years, but historically it has produced very strong returns following big down years.
Tracking Cash...Who Has It, And Who Doesn’t
Still a mountain of cash available (MZM data), which could find its way into the stock market. Don’t confuse scarcity of buyers with scarcity of liquidity.
Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
New bull markets are front end loaded, with the strongest performance usually coming within the first few months. Study also shows that Small Cap Growth stocks tend to outperform their Large Cap and Value counterparts.
A Decade Lost....Why Sentiment Is Now So Bad And Opportunity Now So Good
The S&P 500 has produced an annual compound return of -0.9% per year for the last ten years (November 1998 through November 2008). This does, however, set the stage for very strong performance going forward.
Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data
Non-farm payroll data is poised to register a buy signal for the stock market in early December. Using the year over year rate of change has historically been very effective in identifying recession-related market bottoms.
Think There's No Fuel For A Rally??.....Better Think Again
Using the ratio of MZM relative to total stock market capitalization as a gauge of market liquidity, shows there is a lot of fuel that can be put to work to drive a stock market rally.
November Market Action
Drama, if not direction, have become one of the stock market’s few certainties.
Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December
It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Not very many investors or portfolio managers have capital gains to offset.
Bear Market Epitaph?
While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.
As The Smoke Clears
Based on economic recessions, the sweet spot for stock accumulation seems to be upon us. Valuations also very compelling.
Normalized Earnings…..A Primer
Normalized P/E ratios show stock market to be cheap, but what are “normalized earnings”? We present our methodology and rationale is this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. While U.S. stocks are cheap, foreign stock markets look even cheaper.
October Capitulation
There was $84 billion coming out of U.S. stock and bond funds in October, the highest net redemptions ever. Second highest month of outflow came in September 2008 (just a month earlier). To us, this looks like a case of capitulation by the public.
Perception for the Professional
May 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
Sector Navigator
May 2026 Issue
