Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Finally! In November secondary stocks as a class, performed better than the S&P 500 and DJIA. One warm month for secondary stocks does not mean spring is here, but it may mean that spring is coming soon.

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The most recent Major Trend Index sell signal, was transmitted to clients on Halloween 1989. Here in December 1990, this work is still negative, although significantly improved from a few months ago. But this work continues to indicate this is still a bear market.

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Congressional Deficit Reduction Follies: The ultimate result was a cruel joke, with no meaningful spending restraints and a hodgepodge of new taxes, apparently ripe with special interest favors. Yes, it is business as usual in Washington.

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So we made it through October without taking a big stock market hit. The popular stock market measures ended the month about where they started, enough to reduce investor pessimism levels by a few degrees, maybe more.

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This issue marks the first anniversary of the most recent Major Trend Index sell signal, transmitted to clients on Halloween 1989. Here in October 1990, this work has improved significantly from a month ago.

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The two most common questions we hear from equity only managers are: “When (if ever) should we start buying secondary stocks?” and “When do you expect a market leadership shift to the cyclicals?”

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The recent “surprise” downward revision in quarterly real GNP growth served to drive the majority of investment professionals and economists from the “no recession” camp. Also, Junk Mail Busters and Ken Safian lives!

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If you thought the third quarter of 1990 was bad in the U.S. stock market, think of those poor fellas in Tokyo. Of course if your universe is secondary stocks, it was worse than that.

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Cyclical bear markets typically decline 25%-30%. In terms of amplitude, the bear market could be more than half over…if it’s a typical bear.

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Secondary stocks were down a big 9%-10% in September compared to 5%-6% declines for the capitalization weighted measures. Year to date, secondary stocks are down twice as much as the cap weighted measures.

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In examining various consumer and producer price measures going back for as long as 1000 years, it was found that prices have risen about 60% of the time and fallen about 40% of the time in the Western world.

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In terms of amplitude, the bear market could be about half over. Typical cyclical bear markets decline 25%-30%. This is not a prediction, only the profile of a typical bear market decline. The current version may decline more or it may decline less.

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Here at The Leuthold Group, we are starting to focus on how we are going to structure our equity portfolio for the next bull market.

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In Memory Of Bob Piper...Changes In Perception II...Common Stock Supply Shortage Thesis: Deja Vu......New Zealand Stock Market Update

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Not all the groups Wall Street views as defensive are actually defensive. But others have functioned very well as down market protection.

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Our Major Trend Index sell signal on October 30 may not have been premature, at least not in terms of most stocks. Think of it this way: We did give you plenty of time to get out.

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As readers know, we have been bears on Tokyo stocks for several years. But we were early in the past. Recent action leads us to believe the bubble may finally have burst, with the remarkable levitation act about over.

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Polling the Financial Analysts Seminar...Welcome Aboard Mike Hamilton...Program Trading And Politics

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Iraq may have been responsible for knocking a fast 100 points off the market in early August, but the stock market had already rolled over. The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index deteriorated significantly with the July 27th calculation. This was before Hussein made his move.

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Innocents Abroad--Comments On Recent European Trip...Here Come The Trains--High Speed Train Travel...Natural Gas Into Gasoline?

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