Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides another way of estimating upside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. Based on the past history of bull market valuation levels, where might the stock market be 12 months from now?

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In the report released on March 27, we witnessed the single largest number of block sales over the history of our work which dates back to 1982.

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The worst may be over for New England real estate and the prospects of another major banking crisis smashing the bank stocks have greatly diminished. Thus, in this issue, we are no longer waiting for the “other shoe to drop” and are selectively adding to our bank stock holdings.

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The Leuthold Group Major Trend Index has improved 543 points from a month ago, with four of the five broad categories of analytical tools firmly in the bullish camp.

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Jim Floyd has cranked up another interesting index for us to center attention on “where the action is” in the secondary arena. The study provides a good picture of the wide part of the ultimate narrow door - a group of secondary issues dominating current trading activity.

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I spent two weeks during February in Chile, most of the time on a white water rafting adventure down the Bio Bio (Bee-0 Bee-0) river. Then, thanks to friends at N.M. Rothschild in London and their associates at Banco Bice in Santiago, I also spent part of my time learning more about the investment scene in Chile.

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We now expect stocks to move considerably higher. Based on our Intrinsic Value studies, the S&P 500 has room to move into the 400-420 zone, the DJIA to 3300-3600. These levels represent gains from current levels of 20%-30%. Secondary stocks are expected to do even better than this.

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I know at least some readers are even now wanting to ask questions, similar to the following. So let me get the jump on you.

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Once again secondary stocks have started out the New Year with a burst of strength. Is it for real this time? Or is it just another January false start for secondary stocks?

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While the New Zealand stock market did rally 7%-8% in January, it has few friends, not even in those few remaining New Zealand brokerage firms.

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Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in our January issue. However, in the past, these “Fearless Forecasts” have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.

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Last year, we resumed a tradition started a number of years ago.

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Each January we publish the gold book (Perception II) before this, the green book.

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Last month this publication discussed a "New Tax Selling Seasonal Factor" in the stock market resulting from the new mutual fund deadline for tax loss selling being October 31 instead of year end.

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This publication often employs a question and answer format, providing answers to the questions being asked most frequently by institutional clients.

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The stock market rally in the fourth quarter considerably eased the equity performance pain of 1990.

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This publication continues to operate under the assumption that this is a more or less typical cyclical bear market in terms of magnitude and duration.

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Secondary stock measures were up 7%-9% in November compared to 5%-6% for the capitalization weighted measures. All we can say is, it’s about time!

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If you have major positions in the select list of 1990 “Hero” stocks (those big growth names that are up on the year), when should you start trimming back (if ever)? When should you start looking at cyclicals (if ever)? When should you start looking at cheap value stocks (if ever)?

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West Coast Client Trip...Remembering Henri de La Chapelle...Twin Cities Presentation of “Other People's Money”... Comparing Large Firms Earnings Growth with Small Firms

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