Yield Curve
Economic Outlook
Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. After rate hike in May, Fed’s actions will be more “data driven”.
Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?
The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.
View From The North Country
Steve presents the transcript of his April 3rd interview with Barron's Senior Editor, Sandra Ward.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending a big question mark.
What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Imply For The Financials?
Conventional wisdom states that inverted yield curves are bad for Financial groups. Doug Ramsey looks at the history of past inversions.
View From The North Country
The persistent rise in short term rates could have a big impact on the consumer. The rising prime rate has boosted debt service costs substantially, and “Financial Death Traps” may be on the horizon.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending being a big question mark.
Is The Inverted Yield Curve Signaling An Equity Bear Market?
Jim Floyd looks at yield curve inversion as a predictor of bear markets. There is some correlation, but the relationship is far from perfect.
Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful
Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion is considered late stage.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.
Have Falling Long Term Rates Ever Contributed To A Flattening Yield Curve Before?
Jim Floyd looks at the history of flattening yield curves. It is very rare for short rates to be rising with long rates coming down, which is what we are seeing in the current environment.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Bond Market Summary
Yield curve inversion reflects supply/demand dynamics, expectations of further Fed tightening and unwinding of short strategies by speculators.
Bond Market Summary
Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening likely.
Bond Market Summary
At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral. U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.
Inside the Bond Market
T-bond ahead of itself, fueled by flight to credit quality...Yields could back up should Asia outlook improve, or equity market rally significantly.
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March 2026 Issue
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