Valuations
U.S. Market Overvalued, Not Undervalued, Relative To NIPA Profits
Contrary to some strategists’ studies the U.S. stock market is not cheap relative to NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts) corporate profits. In fact, like the majority of Leuthold studies, this metric indicates the market is overvalued.
Small Cap Leadership…..7th Inning, But Game Could Be Rained Out At Any Moment
Our equity exposure still overweight in small and mid cap stocks, but we expect the market is progressing to a state of parity.
A Closer Look At Seemingly Cheap Valuations Based On Corporate Profits
S&P 500 valuations using corporate profits (National Income Accounts), not as cheap as suggested and are likely faulty, in our opinion.
Reading The Tea Leaves The Stock Market One Year Ago...vs. Today
A comparison of today’s market conditions compared to one year ago. We look at valuations, sentiment, group leadership and Major Trend categories.
A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps
Weight of evidence no longer overwhelmingly favors Small Cap leadership, but we believe they still have upside potential.
Client Questions
Answering client questions on the economic recovery, bull market upside, valuations, Main Street and what could go wrong?
Tech Watch
Still overweight Info Tech, but stock selection likely to get tougher in coming months.
And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks up BIG in April. The NASDAQ gained 9.2% for the month, secondonly to the Russell 2000 in terms of performance.
Tech Watch
The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures.
S&P 500 Not Overvalued
The index is not currently “overvalued”…..Nor is it undervalued. Small/mid cap stocks cheap, but large caps also getting attractive.
New Data Series: Leuthold 3000 Stock Universe Valuations—Growth Vs. Value
The initial framework presented with a snapshot of the current relationships.
This Is Still A Cyclical Bull Market
Still bullish on stock market, expecting cyclical bull market to extend into 2004. Very worried that any easing of tensions in Iraq or Venezuela will bring crude prices down hard and fast.
Valuations Are Sky High…How Can The Leuthold Group Be Bullish?
An explanation herein, with the use of our trusty histograms.
Valuations…..Most Bear Markets End Around Median P/E Levels
Earnings are rebounding strongly. S&P operating earnings estimates are up 21% from 2001 to 2002, and up 23% from 2002 and 2003. Severe cost cutting may not be fully factored into analyst estimates. Look for upside earning surprise.
Tech Watch
Technology stocks soar again as our broad tech index gained 26.4% in November.
Tech Watch
October provided welcomed relief for technology stock investors. After an average loss of 18% for tech stocks in September, the October rebound came along and more than made up for the loss in most cases.
Case For A Bear Market Bottom
I now think the stock market will record its secular bear market lows between now and Thanksgiving. It’s time right now to start an equity accumulation program.
Tech Watch—Pockets of Strength Beginning to Emerge
Stock selection and small cap focus have provided the only hopes of surviving this decimated sector.
Why We Conclude Equities Are No Longer Overvalued
Explanation of how we use historical valuations to compare to today.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
