Unemployment
Consumer Watch– Economic Data Weakening, Consumer Stocks Already Discounting A Slowdown
Our view that the consumer is due for a pullback has been bolstered in recent months, as Consumer Discretionary groups have continued to slip in our Group Selection (GS) Score rankings.
The Demise Of The Consumer
“Of Special Interest” section examines the likely demise of consumer spending power. Taking a lead from the GS Scores and other economic data, we believe that a significant underweight in areas that are particularly sensitive to consumer spending is a prudent strategy for now.
The Consumer: Still Chugging Along
Consumer spending may have finally peaked in this cycle, but a consumer collapse is far from imminent. Consumers can be expected to remain supportive of economic growth.
Assessing The Unemployment Statistics
The BLS’ Household and Payrolls surveys have been hopelessly out of sync for much of the current economic recovery, leading to debate about which statistic should be believed.
Still Can't Count Out The Consumer
American consumer spending is still in an uptrend, helping to drive economic growth, although to a lesser extent. In the meantime, CapEx spending has been accelerating, which should serve to pick up any economic slack.
A Big Picture View of the Jobs Data
Recent job data re-enforces our belief the economy is rebounding nicely. Expect to see job picture continue to strengthen in coming months.
Don't Count Out The Consumer
Consumer should not be underestimated. Combined mortgage debt and household debt only 14%, just barely above the 1980-to-date median.
A Disappointing Start
The “seasonals” were with us, but have yet to produce positive results. “V” shaped economic recovery conviction stronger than a month ago.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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