Technology

Performance of technology subsets is fragmenting. Software and services look the best; Peripherals and Systems the worst. Tech mania comparisons: Adding 1962 to 1969, 1972, 1983, and 1995.

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S&P performance gets “tech-less”. Tech stocks have only added 4% to YTD S&P performance and only 11% since 1970.

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“Tech” manias revisited: comparing P/E ratios and Price/Sales ratios.

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Will the technology stocks continue their market leadership, or is a high tech wreck about to commence?

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Beginning of the end for tech stocks? Maybe not. More “new era” speak — a.k.a. justifications for an overvalued equity market.

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The basic question is, what might motivate the Teflon market to initially suffer a period of weakness?

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This could prove to be a very rewarding investment sector, assuming the market continues to favor technology and an economic recovery gets underway in late 1991.

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In recent months, a number of you have been asking about technology stocks and the technology sector.

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We are getting increasingly optimistic about the prospects for Industrial Technology stocks and increasingly cautious about the outlook for Office & Information Technology stocks.

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We may have to wait for a while to see the next major cyclical surge in the secular bull market born in 1974, but when it gets underway we think the Technology sector will probably lead.

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It didn’t seem like much, but June turned out to be all right. Net gains for the averages were in the 1-2% range, but our model gained close to 3%. Annualized, that’s not bad.

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You may recall this publication turned very negative on High-Tech stocks in the late spring of 1983....certainly one of our better calls. In a summer 1983 Barron’s article, we projected a decline of 45% or more. Hell, it was more. Now it may be time to start buying them back. Some of these beaten up stocks will ultimately become established major factors in their fields. Which ones?

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Our “High Tech Thirty” index on Feb. 23 was down 45% from the June 1983 peak. That, coincidentally was the target set by us in summer 1983. The worst might be over for these battered and beaten stocks. A few are starting to look interesting.

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Many high tech stocks have probably “had it” in terms of potential market leadership, especially the Office Tech stocks and Info Tech stocks. But we think Industrial Tech stocks have considerable potential. This “In Focus” feature explains why, reviewing market action of high tech stocks (including our High Tech Thirty Index).

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The High-Tech Thirty index was introduced last month and fostered considerable interest. We have done additional work, providing more back history, and drawn a new chart. “Let’s Get Competitive” was introduced in a special feature last month however, because of timing considerations, we have not yet started building a major portfolio holding in this area. But maybe we should stop trying to get so cute and get on with it.

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An index has been constructed out of 30 of 1983’s favorite high-tech stocks. Through August 8, the index is down 19% from the June 24 peak, following a 63% 1983 advance. The decline is right in line with expectations and the “bloodbath” may be less than half over.

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An examination of the technology sector, concluding supply has caught up with demand and sharp intermediate down-draft coming. However, the High-Tech game is far from over. This may be only “half time.”

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This conceptual area, even though now widely recognized, still looks attractive. We may soon again be increasing holdings here from current 10% levels. With this issue, we have refined our approach, separating Science & Technology Productivity Plays from Non-Science & Technology. The S&T components may be most attractive. A new index is introduced to track this segment more closely.

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