Technology

Tech valuations very much back in line, the question is, how low can they go?

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S&P 500 tech weighting has plunged 43% from February 2000’s peak of 34%. Now at 19%, but expect it may have further to fall in 2001.

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The underlying decline in valuations and tech stock weightings in the cap weighted market indices probably has further to go in 2001.

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S&P Technology Weighting has fallen to about 21.9% from nearly 35% in February. Expect it to fall to 20% or below (recession?) within the next year.

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On average, the public companies that advertised had an average loss of 72.4% through November (calculated from 1/28/00).

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The Internet Insanity Index was hammered with a 36% loss in November. Some of these companies will likely survive, but many will expire. We advise avoiding the group.

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November was Tech nightmare but we think about two-thirds of decline is behind us.

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Over the last two months, the Internet Insanity Index has come down hard. The 16.1% loss in October follows an 11.7% September decline.

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Not even the mighty techs are immune to saturation, overcapacity, cyclicality, and fierce competition.

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I think November might be a rather dreary month for the U.S. stock market, even if we don’t get those cold chilling rains.

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Since February, valuations have plummeted 37%, about half way back to median levels. However, relative P/E ratios paint a different picture.

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After rebounding in August (16.7%), the Internet Insanity Index fell 11.7% in September. Of the 131 equity groups we track, the Insanity Index trailed 113.

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October carries a reputation with investors as the “cruelest  month”, but statistically, September is most likely to be a downer. Paid To Play Portfolio: Now up an unbelievable 57% YTD. Tech Sunset? Professionals seem to be lightening their load in technology and communication commitments, now targeting a market weight.

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The spurts and dips seen on the chart of our Internet Insanity Index are mouthwatering to both bulls and bears alike.

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After a big bounce in June (+21%), the Internet Insanity Index came back to earth in July with a 7.7% loss.

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This group rallied in June along with many of the other Technology related groups. However, for the YTD, this Internet Insanity Index is still down more than 21%.

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The Internet Insanity Index has continued to deflate rapidly with a 17.3% loss recorded in May.

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Special reprint of Steve Leuthold, Byron Wien and Charley Maxwell conference call from early April.

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The Internet Insanity Index continued its descent back to earth with a big 18.2% decline during April.

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Performance for the entire Insanity Index has been aided by the inclusion of the Online Brokers in this group. This subset of our index was up almost 24% on average in March, and up 33% YTD.

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