Seasonality
Bullish...At Least for a While
The public is back as evidenced by strong mutual fund cash inflows. Seasonally strong Q1 mutual fund inflows should push the DJIA above 10,000. Traditional “January Effect” may be absent again in 1999, as it has previous four years.
October Mutual Fund Flows
Public confidence measures have taken some sharp declines in recent weeks but mutual fund investors have cautiously returned as net buyers. Meanwhile the mountain of cash in U.S. focus equity mutual funds has climbed to $125 billion.
The Current Stock Market Environment
After wavering in neutral several weeks, Major Trend Index turned negative November 24...Go to sidelines. Market rallied strongly in November but fund investors uncharacteristically stayed on the sidelines. Is this increased caution or seasonality?
How Was Your Summer Holiday?
Major Trend Index faded to High Neutral in August, but will likely be propelled back to Positive by strong September 2nd market…Valuations still off the charts, but new valuation era looks like it’s still with us.
Worth Noting
Balanced budget agreement assumes current economic expansion will run about 12 years, longer than any other in history.
August: Few Surprises
The stock market performed pretty much as expected in August, although experiencing a somewhat unusual fade at month end. Major Trend remains negative. Some improvement but still a long way from Neutral.
It’s A Big Cap Market
No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.
If We Make It Through November…..
Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...adding earnings momentum as a positive.
Navigating the Treacherous September, October, November Period
Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...technology leadership is fragmenting — shifting this positive to neutral.
1994: A Dull Summer?
Downside equity market risk viewed as significant: still believe 90% probability we are in early stages of a bear market. Could be a dull summer?
Major Trend Index Slips To Neutral
Yes, there are more negative points than positive points, but the margin is not enough to be considered a sell signal. Don’t jump the gun.
A Second Reminder, Take Your Phone To The Beach
I think August will be a month in which some big players start taking big money out of the stock market game, defensively preparing for Wall Street's traditional hurricane season.
1992...After Labor Day
Wall Street gets back down to business after Labor Day. No more summer novels, long weekends, gin and tonics or sand in the shoes. It's a new investment season. Here is our assessment of what might be in store for the market.
Off the Cuff
October drama…Interest rates and stocks may be uncoupling…Is it too soon to see a bear market?...What could break the back of the Bull?
A New Seasonal Factor
Finally! In November secondary stocks as a class, performed better than the S&P 500 and DJIA. One warm month for secondary stocks does not mean spring is here, but it may mean that spring is coming soon.
“Playing the Bounce”
For over 10 years, The Leuthold Group has been sending out a list of year end trading suggestions. In November and December we go “bottom fishing” for stocks that are overextended on the downside. When year-end selling pressures lift, these selected Issues typically rebound nicely Into January or even February.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index improved somewhat in September but remains in negative territory. The strong September down move was no surprise, it appears that a major cyclical market top is in progress. Portfolio “Insurance” played a significant role in the September decline and it could play the reverse roll in a future market rally.
Inside the Stock Market
June was down in the middle and up at the end. The net was a 2.5% gain for the DJIA and 1.8% for the S&P 500. Not much, but a decided improvement over May. Actually, in the midst of the June churning, some significant undercurrents were occurring.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is maybe half or two-thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. But the current cyclical bull market is no longer so healthy. Mutual fund mania continues - factoring in the May ICI statistics over the last twelve months, net cash flow into equity oriented mutual funds is now up 10.8% of assets, equaling the previous high-water marks of 1955-1957.
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