Risk Aversion Index
Risk Aversion Index—New “Lower Risk” Signal
We expect the search for yield to continue in the near term and favor Higher Quality credits within fixed income.
Risk Aversion Index—New “Higher Risk” Signal
With global bond yields plumbing new all-time lows, we continue to favor Higher Quality credits within fixed income.
Risk Aversion Index—Ticked Up But Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
The real test for risky assets lies immediately ahead with central bank meetings, the Brexit vote, and the Spanish election later in the month. We continue to favor Higher Quality credits within fixed income.
Risk Aversion Index—Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
After the last couple months’ strong surge, risky assets are entering a seasonally unfavorable period, with Brexit looming particularly large in the near term. We still favor higher quality credits within fixed income.
Risk Aversion Index—Ticked Lower But Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
We believe a short term rally is more likely and recommend a neutral stance towards credits at this point.
Risk Aversion Index Fell Sharply, Generated A New “Lower Risk” Signal
Favor credits within fixed income in the near term but beware of volatility ahead
RAI Ticked Up And Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
We recommend staying cautious and exercising patience in the near term.
Risk Aversion Index—Fell Sharply But Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
We are leaning towards a more favorable outcome for risky assets but staying alert.
Risk Aversion Index—Stays On “Higher Risk” Signal
The market is at a critical juncture with oil-related assets very oversold while equities are holding near all-time highs.
Risk Aversion Index Stays On “Lower Risk” Signal
Continued strength in equities offsets the weakness in credits and commodities to arrive at an essentially flat reading.
Risk Aversion Index Ticked Up - Still On “Higher Risk” Signal
There have been several cases in the last couple years where credit and/or currency risk-off events never affected equities. We will soon find out if this is just another one of those. Caution is recommended.
Risk Aversion Index - Stayed On Higher Risk Signal
The level of this index is in an extreme zone where false alarms are more likely as small movements in the index can trigger new signals.
Risk Aversion Index - New Higher Risk Signal
Surprising strength in the Yen, a drop in commodities, and slightly wider credit spreads pushed up the index. An increase in risk aversion becomes more likely at the current extremely low level. Caution is warranted.
RAI Lower - Stays on "Lower Risk" Signal
Risk assets continued to perform well in March, and our monthly Risk Aversion Index (RAI) fell to near record low levels. We continue to favor high quality credits within fixed income.
RAI Falls Sharply—New “Lower Risk” Signal
This closed out the one month old “Higher Risk” signal. We continue to favor high quality credits within fixed income.
Risk Aversion Index Turns Higher, New “Higher Risk” Signal
We are turning defensive within fixed income and recommend moving up the quality scale.
Risk Aversion Index Edges Lower, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal
We are in the seasonally favorable part of the year and we continue favoring high-grade credits within fixed income.
Risk Aversion Index Falls Further, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal
We seem to be in a “Goldilocks” period, where economic numbers are not bad enough to re-ignite recession fears but are just weak enough to push the taper farther off.
Risk Aversion Index Falls To New “Lower Risk” Signal
The RAI had the biggest drop of the year in September and triggered a new “Lower Risk” signal. This is largely due to the no-taper decision by the Fed. We remain cautious in the near term due to the debt ceil- ing debate but recommend increasing risky exposure after the debt ceiling resolution.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
