PPI

The major inflation concern is to what degree significantly higher energy costs will be passed through, even if energy prices stabilize or decline.

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Expecting economy to slow in 2006, with possibility of recession developing late in the year. Energy prices remain a wild card.

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Major reason for lower inflation forecasts is expectation of slowing economy (recession?) in 2006.

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CPI/PPI inflation twelve month rate of change has likely peaked and is expected to decelerate over at least the next 2-3 months.

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2005 Inflation Predictions Boosted: Now project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +5.0% by year end.

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After a brief dip, project twelve month CPI to accelerate to about +3.8% by year end.

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We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.

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CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.

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Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.

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Higher oil prices and higher food prices pushed recent CPI and PPI higher. Next month’s readings will likely show less inflation with oil prices coming down some recently.

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Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.

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What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!

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Favorite stock groups now “inflation and interest rate proof”?

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1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).

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Wage pressure is only cloud on inflation horizon.

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Wage inflation looked like it was finally taking off in October, but November's data showed a different picture, as four of the nine subsets (including Total Wage inflation) moved lower.

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“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.

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Even considering these deficit related problems, we have to remain cyclically bullish on T-bonds for the next few months. The bond market just has too much going for it. Most of our inflation work remains cool, but this month we present two momentum measures for the PPI and CPI that may appear ominous to some.

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55 members of Congress are double dippers, getting a government salary check and a government pension check each month. Some think it's unethical, but it's all legal. Names and numbers included. Also, the CPI may soon be understating inflation, but not because a rental equivalent will be substituted for home prices and mortgage costs in January 1983. PPI, however, is understating price declines.

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