PPI
10-Year: Taper the Taper—Upside Limited
If interest rates keep going higher from here, we would run the risk of derailing a still-fragile recovery. As long as the Fed tapering uncertainty exists, we expect higher volatility on the 10-year yield to persist in the mean time.
Inflation Slightly Lower Than Expected
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI fell 0.5% from October to November, lower than expected.
No Big Change — Inflation Remains Moderate
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was essentially flat in October, in line with market expectations.
Inflation Turned Higher In August
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI jumped 0.6% in August, matching the market consensus.
CPI Inflation Dips Lower, But Concerns About Food & Energy Prices Remain
Inflation measures mostly lower than expected in July.
Inflation Pressures Trend Lower
Inflation measures mostly matched expectations in June.
Near Term Inflation Presures Receding
Most inflation measures matched expectations in April.
Falling Commodity Prices Tamping Down Inflation Pressures
Through November, the CPI is now up 3.4% from year ago levels, while the PPI is up 5.7%.
Reported Inflation Should Be Muted In 2012
For 2012, the reported CPI is expected to slip down to the +2% area (although items like lunches, transportation, parking and food may continue rising at close to a 10% rate).
Very Little Price Pressure At Present
It is very difficult to find signs of accelerating inflation in today’s markets.
Inflation Pressures Waning
While our 2011 year end inflation projections are still well above the 2010 year end levels, it seems that both the CPI and PPI may have already peaked for the year.
Six Month Readings Look More Favorable Than Twelve Month Readings
In all of the primary inflation measures monitored in our Inflation Watch publication, the six month rates of change moved lower in July. For the most part, the twelve month readings have continued to rise. This action is likely pointing to diminishing inflation pressures for the months ahead.
Jumped The Gun With Boost To PPI Estimate
The July reports showed that both PPI and CPI edged downward in June from May readings.
Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections
CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.
Despite Falling Commodity Prices, Inflation Still Expected To Accelerate In 2011
Latest PPI month/month increase was +1.2%, however the latest report is a measure of inflation from mid March through mid April and does not include the impact of the plunge in commodity prices.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their six month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their 6 month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
By keeping interest rates at extreme lows and printing money, the Fed is trying to reflate, convincing consumers to spend, not save and investors to buy riskier assets.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
Commodities are on fire, and it’s not just because of the weaker dollar. Commodity prices are signaling significant pass-through inflation pressures building.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.
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